Analysis of the ratings of US presidential candidates

National level:

Given the fact that the 2020 electoral year is somewhat unique both for the history of the United States and in general, we propose to consider fluctuations in the ratings of candidates depending on the socio-political situation in the country and the world. However, the undisputed leader of the race for 10 months remains the candidate from the Democratic Party of the United States, Joe Biden. According to research, it is D. Biden who wins in 11 out of 14 swing states as of 27.10

  • The current political life in the United States essentially began with the resonant assassination of the Iranian general K. Soleimani. This event caused a flurry of criticism against D. Trump, which of course could not but affect the electoral ratings of the current president. The first of the current ratings include a rating dating from 11.01 IBD / TIPP: Biden - 48%, Trump - 46%.

  • As for the resonant murder of D. Floyd, the informational situation played into the hands of the Democratic candidate D. Biden. However, if we analyze the data of such resources as Economist, CBS News, FOX News, etc. In the period from 20.05 to 16.06 (a few days before the event and 2 weeks after), then the situation looks as follows: D. Biden's rating fluctuated on average from 48% up to 50%, which by the way does not differ from the general course of the campaign up to this point. Whereas, according to FOX News, D. Trump's rating dropped somewhat from 40% to 38% over the same period. Although according to the resource Emerson 3.10, the rating was up to 47% for the incumbent president, and for his opponent 53%.

  • Traditionally, presidential debates in the United States play a large role in the electoral preferences of voters in this country, so the first and final debates of presidential candidates should be analyzed.

  • After the first presidential debate, according to Economist / YouGov, voters' preferences were distributed as follows: D. Biden - 50%, D. Trump - 42%. For comparison, we can cite the result of CNN 1.09 according to which D. Biden - 51%, D. Trump - 43%.

  • After the final (third) debate, according to IBD / TIPP, the votes were divided as follows: D. Biden - 51%, D. Trump - 45%.

  • According to the latest sociological research IBD / TIPP from 25.10, the ratings of candidates show further leadership of D. Biden - 52%, D. Trump - 45%.

For a certain period of time, the candidates held equal positions of the electorate's preferences.

  • According to Emerson from 23.01 D. Biden and D. Trump 50% each.

  • According to FOX News from 7.04 D. Biden and D. Trump 42% each.

  • According to IBD / TIPP dated 29.04 D. Biden and D. Trump 43% each.

  • According to The Hill / HarrisX from 6.05 D. Biden and D. Trump 41% each.

Despite the fact that over the past 10 months, the Democrat candidate D. Biden has been and remains the undisputed leader of the election race, various studies have recorded at least 3 times the periods when D. Trump came out on top.

  • According to the resource Emerson dated February 18, D. Biden - 48%, D. Trump - 52%.

  • According to the resource Rasmussen Reports from 15.09 D. Biden - 46%, D. Trump - 47%.

  • According to the resource Rasmussen Reports from 25.10 D. Biden - 47%, D. Trump - 48%.

Swing states:

Each electoral cycle, the number of fluctuating states changes. Some states become either supporters of Democrats or Republicans for several electoral cycles, later the situation may change again. As of this year, it is possible to identify about 13 such states that will decide the results of the current elections, given the fact that in the United States, in addition to the voters themselves, there is also an electoral system and even relatively small states can play a decisive role. These states include:

  • State of Ohio (without a victory in this state, not a single Republican candidate won the election): according to CNN, D. Biden - 46%, D. Trump - 47%.

  • State of Iowa according to CNN data D. Biden - 48%, D. Trump - 46%.

  • State of North Carolina according to CNN D. Biden - 49%, D. Trump - 46%.

  • State of Virginia, according to the Washington Post / Schar School, D. Biden - 52%, D. Trump - 41%.

  • The state of Florida (the state fluctuates more than others, it was he who decided the outcome of the 2000 elections) according to CNN data D. Biden - 49%, D. Trump - 45%.

  • State of Georgia according to CNN data D. Biden - 48%, D. Trump - 46%.

  • State of Pennsylvania (in this state D. Trump was the only Republican; won for the first time in a long time; the same state is the birthplace of D. Biden), according to CNN, D. Biden - 51%, D. Trump - 44%.

  • State of Wisconsin (in the 2016-IV elections, D. Trump unexpectedly became the winner in this state) according to CNN D. Biden - 51%, D. Trump - 44%.

  • Michigan according to CNN data D. Biden - 51%, D. Trump - 42%.

  • State of Nevada according to CNN data D. Biden - 49%, D. Trump - 43%.

  • Colorado according to RBI Strategies D. Biden - 55%, D. Trump - 38%.

  • State of Arizona, according to CNN, D. Biden - 49%, D. Trump - 45%.

  • State of New Hampshire according to the University of Hampshire D. Biden - 55%, D. Trump - 43%.

 

Дата публикации: 
28.10.2020 - 13