Analytical review of the week No. 129 of 09/09/2021.

CONTENT:

 

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

 

INTERNAL POLICY.

 

1. Verbal "duel" D. Razumkov and A. Danilov regarding the influence of the oligarchs on the Verkhovna Rada.

2. Calling the Minister of Culture and Information Policy A. Tkachenko to the Kyiv City Council.

3. Resignation of judges of the Supreme Court.

4. Possible personnel changes in the government.

 

FOREIGN POLICY.

 

1. Zelensky's official visit to the United States.

2. The Taliban are attacking Panjshir.

3. Biden declared the upcoming declassification of part of the documents on the 9/11 attacks.

4. Biden warns of "more natural disasters" in the future.

 

ECONOMY.

 

1. A representative of the People's Bank of China said that bitcoin “has no value”. The IMF also warned that the adoption of bitcoin as the national currency could affect the macroeconomic stability of countries.

2. A financial ‘bubble’ is inflating on Wall Street, which can burst as early as September 2021.

3. Ukravtodor received 376 million dollars from Ukrainian banks for the "Big Construction".

4. Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding with the US Export-Import Bank. A $30 billion deal with Westinghouse.

5. NBU plans to cut allocations to the state budget by almost 2 times.

 

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the political results of the outgoing week, it should be noted that:

First, the political week was marked by the visit of the President of Ukraine to the United States. This meeting and the absence of criticism at it of the position and entourage of V. Zelensky became a sign of US support for the ambiguous actions of the Ukrainian President in relation to the media, political opponents (even pro-Western), and economic assets. At the same time, in the future, with regard to Ukraine, the United States will largely rely on its European allies, and neither Ukraine nor V. Zelensky received any significant guarantees of a political, economic or military nature.

Secondly, after the visit to the United States, the political system of Ukraine is awaiting a reshuffle in the Cabinet of Ministers. The resignations of the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Culture, the Deputy Prime Minister - the Minister for Strategic Industries, the Minister of Justice are likely. The resignation of the entire government of D. Shmygal is also possible. Among his successors, the current First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Energy, Minister of Territories have already been named.

Thirdly, the confrontation between the Office of the President and the Mayor of Kiev V. Klitschko continues, around which opposition political elites and economic groups can consolidate. The tension in the political system continues to increase.

Fourthly, the key PR project of the current ruling party “Big construction” is experiencing a lack of funding, and for its purposes the state is forced to attract loans from state and private banks.

Fifth, the development of events around Afghanistan continues, which is characterized by the Taliban's attempts to create centralized control and competition between global and regional states instead of the United States in Afghan politics.

Sixth, the growth of stock quotes, real estate and many types of raw materials allows some analysts to talk about a "bubble" in the most developed economies of the world (especially the United States). The situation may be aggravated by a new wave of the pandemic and the growth of structural problems in the global economy.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly.

As part of the government's trend to suppress the main political and economic opponents, the confrontation between the Office of the President and the Mayor of Kiev V. Klitschko continues. The parties exchanged blows: in response to the accusation of the government and the National Security and Defense Council of V. Klitschko of the illegality of the demolition of the building on the Observatory. For its part, the Kiev City State Administration announced that it had the permission of the Ministry of Culture at its disposal and summoned the Minister of Culture and Information Policy A. Tkachenko to the meeting.

In addition, the level of tension between the Office of the President and the head of the Verkhovna Rada D. Razumkov continues to grow. The speaker quite clearly demonstrates his autonomy from the position of Bankova, in particular, in relation to the so-called. the law on oligarchs.

The struggle continues between V. Zelensky, the judiciary and external players for influence on the country's judicial system. In the Supreme Court, there are massive resignations of judges, and at a committee meeting, deputies exclude previously taken into account amendments regarding the competitive procedure for selecting candidates for the position of judge of the Constitutional Court with the involvement of international experts, leaving it as it is today. By minimizing in such a way the influence of Western partners on this process.

1. Verbal "duel" D. Razumkov and A. Danilov regarding the influence of the oligarchs on the Verkhovna Rada.

During a briefing on August 31, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Dmitry Razumkov demanded an explanation from NSDC Secretary A. Danilov about "corruption laws in the Rada." Earlier on the air of the TV channel "Ukraine 24" NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that the influence of the oligarchs on the Verkhovna Rada is very large today. And this must be stopped. According to the NSDC secretary, the laws that the oligarchs "accept" in the Verkhovna Rada are one of the elements of their existence.

D. Razumkov called on Danilov to name exactly the people's deputies who, in his opinion, are under pressure from the oligarchs. The speaker stressed that the president, as the guarantor of the Constitution and as the head of state, would definitely not have signed laws that contain a corruption component. "I hope that here he (A. Danilov) will not argue with me."

The dispute between A. Danilov and D. Razumkov is being conducted around the so-called. the law on oligarchs.

According to the bill, the regulation on the formation of the Register of Oligarchs is approved by the NSDC, which will basically act as a regulator of all issues. For a person to be struck off the register, he must stop falling under at least two signs of an oligarch. If the oligarch removed the criteria, he submits an application to the NSDC, and he considers it. This state of affairs will force big business to make various behind-the-scenes agreements with the authorities in order not to be included in this list.

Earlier, D. Razumkov expressed the opinion that the NSDC cannot have such powers, since there is a conflict of interests: if someone from the NSDC is in close corrupt relations with a representative of large business, then he will not vote within the NSDC to include this person in the list oligarchs. According to A. Danilov, the Verkhovna Rada will decide who will keep the register of oligarchs, and this may not be the NSDC. However, he noted that the president believes that it should be the National Security and Defense Council.

The head of parliament is almost the only politician who allows himself to disagree with the decisions of the NSDC, which, in his opinion, in some cases substitute for the courts. At the same time, the speaker quite often demonstrates a position different from the presidential line on some issues, which causes irritation in the OP. While the president and his political forces are smoothly drifting from the moderate to the nationalist electoral segment, Dmitry Razumkov is trying to adhere to more neutral positions that are more in line with laws and the Constitution. And also, which were originally declared by the "Servants of the People" as their ideological guidelines. This gives the impression that the head of parliament is playing a separate political game.

In particular, the speaker expressed his disagreement with the appointment of Yuriy Vitrenko and Sergei Shkarlet as ministers. In parallel with the president, he introduced a separate bill aimed at solving the "constitutional crisis", moreover, the parliament took his version as a basis. In addition, at a meeting of the NSDC, Dmitry Razumkov abstained from voting for sanctions against three TV channels - 112 Ukraine, ZIK and Newsone.

In addition, at the end of July, D. Razumkov defiantly ignored the Zelensky-Yermak event - the Congress of Regional and Local Authorities in Kiev, and instead came to Odessa, where the Association of Ukrainian Cities, headed by Vitali Klitschko, was gathering.

Therefore, it can be argued that relations between the Office of the President and the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada are rapidly heating up.

But it will not be so easy to dismiss Dmitry Razumkov of the OP, in order to promote this issue, it is necessary to publicly explain what is wrong with D. Razumkov and find votes in support of another candidate. In addition, the speaker has a small group of deputies who are guided precisely by him. The spreading rumors about the probable resignation of D. Razumkov, probably, should exert some form of pressure on the chairman of the parliament, as well as make him toxic - a kind of signal for other deputies of the "Servants of the People" that there is no need to keep in touch with the speaker. At the same time, it is possible that the dismissal of the head of the Verkhovna Rada is possible as a result of direct pressure on him from V. Zelensky.

2. Calling the Minister of Culture and Information Policy A. Tkachenko to the Kyiv City Council.

On August 31, the Kiev City Council invited the Minister of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine Alexander Tkachenko and the head of the Main Directorate of the National Police in Kiev Ivan Vygivsky to its meeting. “Alexander Tkachenko was invited to hear information about activities in the field of cultural heritage protection in the city of Kiev. Ivan Vygivsky - in order to hear information about the state of law, the fight against crime, the protection of public safety and order and the results of activities on the territory of the city of Kiev, ”the message says.

For his part, Oleksandr Tkachenko expressed surprise at the invitation to a session of the Kyiv City Council, since he is on vacation, and Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko knows about it. ICIP at the session of the City Council should be represented by Deputy Svetlana Fomenko. For his part, A. Tkachenko invited V. Klitschko will come to the Ministry of Culture after September 2 and in the presence of representatives of law enforcement agencies to discuss a number of issues.

“You have found“ reasons ”not to appear at the NSDC meeting. I very much hope that you will have the courage to come to the ministry and openly answer all the questions posed both at the NSDC meeting and by the society of the capital ”.

On August 20, the NSDC decided to assess the destruction of the Barban estate, restore the destroyed monument and prepare an audit of all architectural values ​​throughout Ukraine. Klitschko was invited to the NSDC meeting due to problems with the architectural landmarks of the capital.

The National Security and Defense Council asked the Minister of Culture and Information Policy Alexander Tkachenko to raise the issue of the destruction of the traditional historical environment in Kiev, according to the NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov.

V. Klitschko called the refusal of Minister A. Tkachenko to come to the meeting of the Kyiv City Council disrespectful to the deputies and the people of Kiev.

According to V. Klichko, over the past three years and the first half of this year, the capital's authorities have applied to the Ministry of Culture with a request to add more than 1,542 monuments and newly discovered cultural heritage sites to the State Register of Immovable Monuments of Ukraine. During April 2021, the Department received orders from the Ministry for 2018-2021 to enter only 73 objects of cultural heritage into the State Register of Immovable Monuments of Ukraine. That is, 1469 more objects have not yet been included in the State Register. Being privately owned or leased, monuments are destroyed or destroyed by their owners. Society is protesting, but the Ministry of Culture and the police do not adequately react to this. So, for example, with the Barban estate. The building, which was recently demolished by the developer, was not included by the Ministry of Culture in the Register of Cultural Heritage Sites. And the Ministry agreed on the historical and urban planning justification and design documentation for the construction object at 6 Observatornaya.

The call of the Minister of Culture and Information Policy A. Tkachenko to the Kyiv City Council is a continuation of the confrontation around the demolition of the estate on Observatornaya Street. There was a kind of exchange of blows - V. Klitschko was summoned to the National Security and Defense Council, and the Minister of Culture to the Kyiv City State Administration. The NSDC and the government accused V. Klitschko of the illegality of the demolition of the building on the Observatory. For its part, the Kiev City State Administration stated that it had the permission of the Ministry of Culture at its disposal. But the destruction of the architectural monument at the Observatory is only a pretext for a global confrontation between V. Klitschko and the President's Office, the main reason for which is V. Klitschko's likely presidential ambitions and his participation in the future presidential campaign.

3. Resignation of judges of the Supreme Court.

On Thursday, September 2, the High Council of Justice dismissed two judges of the Supreme Court - Svetlana Vus and Vasily Oguretsky. The day before, they wrote their resignations. Earlier on August 27, a judge of the Administrative Court of Cassation within the Supreme Court, Nikolai Gusak, who had worked in the Supreme Court since 2001, resigned. The issue of Gusak's resignation will be considered at a meeting of the High Council of Justice, which will be held on September 7.

Mass resignations in the Armed Forces fit into the trend of confrontation between V. Zelensky, the judiciary and external players for influence on the judicial system. And most likely, they are caused by the reluctance of the judges of the Supreme Court to assist Bankova in the struggle of the president with the removed head of the Constitutional Court A. Tupitsky. Recall that on July 14, the Supreme Court declared it illegal and canceled the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky, with which he dismissed Alexander Tupitsky from the post of head of the Constitutional Court. In addition, the issue of NSDC sanctions is also important, given the role of the Armed Forces in protesting them. The Supreme Court demonstrated that they are ready to cancel the presidential decrees, and there are now several lawsuits challenging the decrees of V. Zelensky, in particular, on the introduction of NSDC sanctions. The decision of the Armed Forces can undermine the entire management model that was built on Bankova: the decision of the NSDC, sanctions, actions against the KSU - all this can crumble. Therefore, it should not be ruled out that the authorities exerted some form of pressure on the judges of the Supreme Court. In response to the decision of the Supreme Court on A. Tupitsky, the OP announced that they intend to appeal against it. Along with this, the judges of the Supreme Court were accused of trying to protect the corruption system and destroy judicial reform.

Against the background of the fact that President V. Zelensky assured US President Biden that Ukraine undertakes to continue judicial reform in accordance with international practices, on September 2, the MPs at a meeting of the committee decided to exclude the previously taken into account amendments regarding the competitive procedure for selecting candidates for the position of a judge of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, leaving her the way it is today. The chairman of the board of the DEJURE Foundation, Mikhail Zhernakov, said that the Council of Judges threatens not to appoint candidates to the Constitutional Court at its congress, who, in the event of a competition, will be selected by the competition committee. The Foundation strongly opposes this and calls on the Verkhovna Rada and the President to fulfill the promises made to the Ukrainian people and to completely clear the Constitutional Court through a transparent competitive procedure with the involvement of international experts. Actually under the guise of forming transparent processes for appointing judges, the main control over the CCU, as well as over the entire judicial system as a whole, should be obtained by Western partners.

4. Possible personnel changes in the government.

On August 30, during a broadcast on the Inter TV channel, the head of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmitry Razumkov, said that the parliament has claims against some ministers, so they could be replaced in the fall.

Earlier, President Vladimir Zelensky himself hinted at the upcoming resignations in the Cabinet of Ministers. It is worth noting that the powers of the president are limited to proposing to parliament only two candidates - foreign and defense ministers. The rest of the government positions are the responsibility of the prime minister and the ruling coalition. However, Vladimir Zelensky, having received a one-party majority in parliament, personally leads the personnel reshuffle in the government. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal only submits to the Verkhovna Rada proposals for dismissals and appointments, decisions on which are made by the president.

People's Deputy from Servant of the People Alexander Kachura said that now there are claims against Defense Minister Andrei Taran, Justice Minister Denis Malyuska and Minister of Culture and Information Policy Alexander Tkachenko.

In turn, the media report that in the near future Minister of Defense Andriy Taran, Minister of Social Policy Marina Lazebnaya and Deputy Prime Minister - Minister for Strategic Industries of Ukraine Oleg Urusky may be fired. At the same time, it is noted that the Minister of Justice and the Minister of Culture will not be changed yet. A. Ermak is not very fond of D. Malyuska, but the president treats him well. A. Tkachenko denied his possible resignation and called it “rumors”. According to him, the Office of the President on this issue "does not conduct any serious discussions."

The People's Deputy of the Servant of the People faction and the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Daniil Getmantsev believes that personnel changes are possible, but they are unlikely to concern Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal.

It is expected that during this autumn the government will be reformatted, at least in part. But it is very likely that the Cabinet of Ministers will be completely dismissed.

In autumn, opponents of the current government can take advantage of the rise in utility tariffs. And in essence, the resignation of the government will be used as a tool to relieve tension in society. Volodymyr Zelenskyy put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated July 30, 2021 "On measures to neutralize threats in the energy sector." And he gave the government a month to solve the problem of fair electricity prices for households. That in the future can actually serve as a formal reason for the change of the Cabinet or individual ministers.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

The United States will increase its exports to Ukraine of both military and non-military products. The construction of a nuclear power plant by the American company Westinghouse on the territory of Ukraine will make the latter dependent on the supply of American nuclear fuel for decades to come.

From the Panjshir province of Afghanistan, as of September 4, there is conflicting news about the Taliban offensive. According to the opposition, the Taliban are suffering significant losses in those killed and taken prisoner. At the same time, the Taliban themselves claim to have taken control of the entire Panjshir province.

Biden ordered the declassification of materials on the 9/11 attacks in order to intercept the information agenda against the background of the shameful withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. He will try to devalue the presence of American troops in Afghanistan from two positions - the terrorists were not Afghans, and it is also impossible to impose Western democracy on Afghanistan, so it is pointless to stay in the country, just as it was pointless to send troops there initially in 2001.

Since the days of Al Gore, Democratic Party officials have been lobbying for subsidies for green energy companies due to direct financial interest. President Biden uses Hurricane Ida as an excuse to remind the American public once again of the threat of climate change, even though the US East Coast is initially prone to relatively frequent hurricanes long before the sharp rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

1. Zelensky's official visit to the United States.

On August 31, 2021, Zelenskiy flew to Washington on an official visit. On the first day of his visit, he held many meetings, including at the Pentagon and the US Department of Energy. The first document signed by the Ukrainian delegation is a joint statement by the Energy Ministers of the United States and Ukraine to strengthen the energy and climate partnership. There is no specificity in this statement. The second signed document is a memorandum between NAEK Energoatom and the American company Westinghouse Electric. And although the memorandum is also declarative, it presupposes concrete steps, but without deadlines. Having signed the document, both companies promised to complete construction of four new power units using AP1000 technology (instead of Russian VVVER-1000) and to build four more nuclear power units in Ukraine. The total cost of the project is up to $ 30 billion. We are talking about investments. As stated in the OP, the implementation of the memorandum will open up an opportunity to attract investments for the construction of five blocks worth about $ 25 billion - in addition to accounting for direct investments, part of production will be localized.

Theoretically, additional power units can be located at the Zaporizhzhya and Rivne NPPs. But there is no concrete decision yet - the fourth power unit at the KhNPP should be a pilot and future projects will depend on its implementation. In 2016, Energoatom signed a practically similar memorandum with the Korean company Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP). However, since then, the construction of the third and fourth power units at the KhNPP has not begun. Therefore, there are still no guarantees that this time history will not repeat itself.

After that, Zelensky met with the head of NASA Bill Nelson. The parties discussed the prospects for the participation of Ukrainian enterprises in the Antares project, the Artemis lunar exploration program, as well as projects to which Ukraine can join with its unique space technologies.

A memorandum of understanding was signed between the State Space Agency of Ukraine and the US Department of Defense Space Command on cooperation in the field of space flight safety. This document opens up additional opportunities for Ukraine "in the context of intentions to prepare its own launch vehicle for future commercial launches."

At the Pentagon, Zelensky met with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The head of the Pentagon recalled that Biden approved the allocation of an additional $ 60 million security assistance package, which includes Javelin anti-tank systems and other types of weapons. Since 2014, the United States has allocated more than $ 2.5 billion to support the Armed Forces, Austin said.

During their visit to the Pentagon, the defense ministers of the two countries signed a framework agreement on the strategic foundations of a defense partnership. The document confirms US support in countering Russian aggression, including a training and exercise program.

Also, the United States will help Ukraine to reform its defense sector in accordance with NATO standards, as well as deepen cooperation in the Black Sea region in order to ensure shipping and "effectively counter external threats." The countries will strengthen cooperation on cybersecurity and defensive intelligence communities.

In addition, an agreement was signed on research and development projects. The document creates conditions for the introduction of advanced defense technologies and the start of projects in the field of modernization of weapons with the attraction of US investments.

The Pentagon also signed agreements on the establishment of a secure communication line and the use of information about those who travel. In particular, Ukraine will be helped to deploy the automated targeting system ATS-GLOBAL, which is used by the US border service to analyze information about passengers at airports.

In turn, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine signed a memorandum with the US Export-Import Bank. Ukraine may receive $ 3 billion to finance American exports to Ukraine.

On September 1, it became known that Ukroboronprom signed three cooperation agreements with American defense companies totaling $ 2.5 billion. In particular, an agreement with Harris Global Communications Inc. provides for the implementation of projects for the supply of products to Ukraine, including its further integration into air, land and sea systems.

The United States is increasing its trade, technological, energy and military influence on Ukraine, strengthening the latter as a market for its products, both civilian and military. American companies will receive additional orders in connection with the signed agreements.

On September 1, Washington hosted the culminating part of V. Zelensky's visit to the United States - his meeting with President Joe Biden. The presidents discussed three blocks of issues: political, economic and security problems. Instead of an hour, as planned, the meeting lasted 2 hours. After that, V. Zelensky immediately left the White House, and later had a short talk with reporters, telling about some of the details of the negotiations with D. Biden.

In general, V. Zelensky's visit to the United States cannot be considered a failure, but there was no breakthrough in Ukrainian-American relations either; Ukraine's key national goals have not been achieved, although impressive announcements have been made. At the same time, both sides tried as much as possible to create a public appearance of the success of the visit.

For D. Biden, the meeting was important in parrying domestic political criticism from the Republicans and some Democrats about the surrender of the interests of the Russian Federation and American concessions on the SP-2. They say, look, we receive the President of Ukraine at the highest level, provide assistance to the country, and once again reaffirm our commitment to its territorial integrity, sovereignty and security.

For V. Zelensky, this meeting is needed primarily as a demonstration, if not support, then the adoption of Zelensky's new policy by the White House. This is important both for ensuring internal political stability in Ukraine (against the intrigues of competing political and economic groups) and for strengthening positions in the dialogue with the EU and the Russian Federation. Especially after Zelensky's “amateur period” - NSDC control of the country, sanctions and criminal prosecution of political opponents and the media, reformatting the leadership of Naftogaz, Wagnergate, difficult discussions with Western partners about control over the judicial, anti-corruption systems, NBU and so on.

At the same time, if we look at it from the point of view of state goals and objectives, then we can state the absence of any strategic agreements and the solution of key issues. In addition, Ukraine must do its homework: judicial reform and reform of the corporate sector (supervisory boards under state-owned companies), the independence of NABU, NBU, the election of a SAP prosecutor, and all this with the approval and control of "Western partners".

V. Zelensky actually:

- received a refusal in terms of changing the position on SP-2 from the United States. Germany is more important than Ukraine;

- received a refusal to determine the timing of integration into NATO;

- most likely received a refusal to receive security guarantees from the United States (following the example of South Korea, Japan and other non-NATO countries), although new agreements in the field of defense have been signed (we are waiting for the text of the New Framework Defense Agreement);

- did not receive consent for the United States to join the negotiation formats for the Donbass;

- no guarantees have been received for anything at all - neither in the military, nor in the financial, nor in the political spheres - not a single legal document of a strategic nature has been signed.

2. The Taliban are attacking Panjshir.

On September 4, militants of the radical Afghan Taliban movement launched a massive offensive on the administrative center of the Panjshir province, which they do not control, the city of Bazarak. Militants previously said they already control four of the province's seven districts: Henj, Pariyan, Shotul and Annaba. Now the Taliban are attacking the capital (Panjshir) Bazarak from three directions. On September 3, contradictory information came from various sources that the Panjshir province was allegedly already taken under the control of the Taliban, although other sources deny this information. The forces disagreeing with the power of the radicals organized a resistance in Panjshir, which was led by Ahmad Masud, the son of the field commander Ahmad Shah Massoud (1953-2001). Former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, who declared himself acting head of state, called on to support him.

Detachments of the National Resistance Front in Panjshir province, which did not submit to the radical Taliban that seized power in the country, according to its own statement, killed about 600 Taliban militants on September 4 and took 1,000 prisoners.

In parallel, political negotiations continue between the Taliban and the leaders of the Panjer.

The international balance around Afghanistan is also changing: the role of China (Pakistan's key partner through which it exercises strategic influence on Afghanistan) is growing; Turkey and Qatar may gain control over the Kabul international airport; The Russian Federation maintains its presence in Afghanistan.

3. Biden ordered to declassify part of the documents on the 9/11 attacks.

On September 3, US President Joe Biden signed a decree revising, declassifying, and releasing government documents related to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The ruling obliges US Attorney General Merrick Garland to release the relevant documents within the next six months.

Information about terrorist attacks should not remain secret if the public interest in it outweighs the possible damage to the national security of the United States, the document says.

In doing so, the 46th President of the United States is fulfilling a promise made to him during the election campaign. Biden then said that if elected, he would instruct the attorney general to "personally examine the circumstances of all cases" in which the government referred to the observance of state secrets, and would advocate "disclosure of information about what happened two decades ago."

Biden will definitely try to intercept the agenda with this decision to declassify data on the September 11 terrorist attack against the background of the shameful withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Information that Biden needs will be highlighted, such as data that would push the American public to believe that the introduction of troops into Afghanistan was a mistake, that the terrorists themselves were not Afghans either by nationality or citizenship, and that the withdrawal of troops was inevitable, since attempts to build Western democracy in Afghanistan is meaningless.

4. Biden warns of "more natural disasters" in the future.

On September 4, Joe Biden stated that “Hurricane Ida '' is another reminder that we need to prepare for new hurricanes and super-storms, which will be more frequent and destructive. " In this sense, Biden completely repeats the agenda of another Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore in 2000, who lost to George W. Bush. It can be a question of how to establish a new tax on emissions of exhaust gases, but, on the other hand, the functionaries of the Democratic Party may be interested in subsidizing the business for the production of "green" energy.

ECONOMY.

Briefly:

Major states of the world, including the United States, as well as the IMF, will resist the growing influence of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as the equivalent of exchange. Every major country will strive to establish its own digital currency and eventually replace Bitcoin with it.

As a result, quantitative easing threatens to inflate another "bubble" in the US stock markets, which, according to some experts, may "burst" as early as September 2021.

The Ukrainian government, represented by the State Agency for Highways of Ukraine, attracted funds in foreign currency from state and private banks for the "Big Construction".

The United States will increase its exports to Ukraine by $ 3 billion and invest up to $ 30 billion in the construction of nuclear power units, making the country dependent on the supply of its nuclear fuel for decades to come.

NBU plans to cut allocations to the state budget by almost 2 times.

1. A representative of the People's Bank of China said that bitcoin “has no value”. The IMF also warned that the adoption of bitcoin as the national currency could affect the macroeconomic stability of countries.

On August 27, in the Chinese press, Yin Yuping, Deputy Director of the Financial Services Consumer Protection Bureau of the People's Bank of China, stated that "Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies" are not legal equivalents of exchange and have no real value. " This point of view is generally supported by the heads of the Central Banks of other large states such as Russia, Japan, the United States and Great Britain. Large states are more likely to expect to launch digital counterparts of their national currencies.

On August 13, the Central Bank of Russia called Bitcoin a "technological pyramid of finance." First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Sergei Shvetsov compared buying bitcoins to "falling into a minefield" and said that any companies that trade bitcoins should not be listed on the local stock exchange (for example, the local version of Coinbase).

A month earlier, on July 18, Bank of England FinTech director Tom Matton said that digital fiat currency would be much better than “dumb” bitcoin. “Bitcoin, given its weaknesses in performance and energy inefficiency, is in no way comparable to the technology we could use in a central bank's digital currency,” he told Coindesk.

Powell told Congress on July 16 that the Fed's ongoing research into the digital dollar is likely to simply render bitcoin obsolete. “You wouldn't need cryptocurrencies if you had a digital dollar,” he said.

Two months earlier, Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that bitcoin is essentially a casino chip used for speculative gambling and investment. “Nobody really uses Bitcoin as a means of payment,” he told Bloomberg on May 28.

John Paulson also believes that Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) have no value either. “Cryptocurrencies, no matter where they are traded today, will end up being useless. When abundance passes or liquidity dries up, they will drop to zero. I would not recommend anyone to invest in cryptocurrencies, ”he said.

“All governments, including the US, want their populations to use their national currency,” says Jason Blik, CEO of EQIBank and Chairman of EQIFI. He says this is due to an economic principle known as seigniorage, which allows the Federal Reserve to print dollars at a cost that far exceeds the initial cost of printing money.

“The problem with seigniorage is that it fails if people don't use the money you print. In smaller countries such as Argentina and Iran, this has become a significant problem as alternatives such as bitcoin have created a shadow economy fueled by disbelief in the national currency, ”says Blik. “This seigniorage problem is very real in many countries, so governments are often tempted to impose bans on digital assets. But I don't think this will ever happen in the US given the dominance of the dollar. "

Some people are even a bit optimistic if the digital dollar or digital renminbi (RMB) gains ground. The latter has already been tested in parts of China.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the adoption of cryptoassets like bitcoin as the national currency could affect the country's macroeconomic stability. The warning came before the Central American country of El Salvador officially adopted the world's most popular decentralized digital currency, Bitcoin, as legal tender on 7 September.

In a blog post called Crypto Assets as a National Currency, the IMF said: “Some countries may be tempted to adopt cryptoassets as national currencies. Many of them are really safe, readily available and cheap to transact. However, we believe that in most cases the risks and costs outweigh the potential benefits. ” "The value of [bitcoin] is too volatile and unrelated to the real economy."

The IMF also suggested that if goods and services were valued in both real currency and cryptoassets, people would spend significant time and resources choosing money rather than productive activities.

“Likewise, government revenues will be exposed to foreign exchange risk if taxes are specified in advance in the crypto asset while spending remains mostly in local currency, or vice versa,” the IMF blog post said.

2. Wall Street may be inflating a “bubble", which could burst in September.

The record growth on the stock exchange is similar to the situation at the end of 1999 and could lead to a 10% or 20% correction as early as next month. Julian Emanuel, strategist at BTIG investment bank, told CNBC about this.

On August 30, the S&P 500 closed at a record 53 times in a year, the Nasdaq at 32. Meanwhile, the Dow is only a fraction of a percent below the record.

Emmanuel points out that the enthusiasm for new records is strong enough to distract investors from serious short-term risks - an increase in the incidence of coronavirus, high inflation and a possible change in Fed policy.

The analyst believes that the S&P 500 could gain another 10% on this euphoria and reach 5000. But, he warns, this will only exacerbate short-term risks.

3. Ukravtodor received $ 376 million from Ukrainian banks for the "Big Construction" (the PR program of the President for the money of state and private banks).

On August 28, the head of Ukreximbank, Yevhen Metzger, announced that Ukravtodor would receive a $ 376 million loan for a period of five years to finance the Big Construction program from several banks.

The State Agency for Highways of Ukraine signed a financial agreement with Ukreximbank, Oschadbank, Ukrgasbank, TASkombank, Credit Dnepr Bank and FUIB.

It is noted that the loan rate is 4.9% per annum in foreign currency.

Ukreximbank, as the loan coordinator, provided 45% of the financing in the equivalent of $ 165 million, Oschadbank - up to 150 million, Ukrgasbank - up to 50 million, Credit Dnepr Bank - 13 million, FUIB - up to 10 million, and TAScombank - USD 14 million

No Ukrainian bank can independently provide such a significant amount of funds, since it exceeds the standards of banks.

Thus, the authorities “scratching the bottom of the barrel” on their PR technology “Big Construction”, borrowing money in foreign currency from banks of state and private property, for which this initiative of the State Agency for Highways of Ukraine was, most likely, “an offer from which it is impossible was to refuse. "

4. Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding with the US Export-Import Bank. A $30 billion deal with Westinghouse.

On August 31, during the visit of the Ukrainian delegation to the United States, the Minister of Economy of Ukraine Oleksiy Lyubchenko signed with and. O. President of the Export-Import Bank of the USA James Barrow Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and the Export-Import Bank of the USA.

The document is aimed at financing American exports to Ukraine at the expense of federal resources.

The memorandum provides for cooperation within the framework of projects in the infrastructure industry of Ukraine, agriculture, energy and digital economy. "The parties intend to consider the possibility of using medium and long-term guarantees, as well as direct loans from the US Eximbank to finance US exports to Ukraine in the amount of $ 3 billion or another amount agreed by the parties," it was reported.

Thus, this agreement will help American producers to earn extra money on the Ukrainian market (even to the detriment of domestic producers).

On August 31, NNEGC Energoatom and the American electrical engineering company Westinghouse Electric signed a memorandum on the joint construction of NPP power units. The corporation controls up to 50% of the world's commercial power units and 31% of the nuclear fuel supply market. Although the financial position of the company is difficult (it is in bankruptcy protection mode), the sources of financing and the timing of construction are not specified.

While we are talking about intentions, there are significant doubts about the feasibility of these projects, especially with regard to the construction of new nuclear units.

5. NBU plans to cut allocations to the state budget by almost 2 times.

According to the NBU forecast, for 2021 in 2022 they will transfer UAH 13.6 billion to the state budget, which is 1.8 times less than in 2021 (UAH 24.4 billion).

"The final volume of the part of the profit before the NBU distribution, which will be subject to transfer by the National Bank to the state budget in 2022, will depend on the actual macroeconomic indicators in 2021 and will be determined after confirmation by an external audit and approval by the NBU Council of the NBU's annual financial statements for 2021.”

The result of the NBU's activity for the first half of 2021, excluding the results of the revaluation of financial instruments, is almost UAH 20 billion. net income, which is 2.4 times more than in the corresponding period last year.

At the same time, the strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate against foreign currencies and an increase in the yield of long-term securities in world markets have led to the accumulation of unrealized losses from revaluation in the amount of UAH 32 billion since the beginning of 2021. As a result, the overall consolidated result of the NBU for 6 months of this year is UAH 12 billion. loss.

 

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.