Analytical review of the week No. 130 of 09/12/2021.

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

06.09.- 12.09.2021

CONTENT:

 

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. The Rada did not support the appeal to grant Ukraine the status of the main US ally outside NATO.

2. The situation around the Constitutional Court.

3. The police raided the houses of the acting mayor of Krivoy Rog Yuriy Vilkul and his son Alexander Vilkul.

4. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings. The attitude of citizens to the world's leading politicians.

 

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. CNN's investigation of the "Wagnerian case" and the announcement of the publication of the results of the investigation of Hristo Grozev.

2. The Taliban took control of the Panjshir region and appointed an interim government.

3. Farewell speech of Angela Merkel before the Bundestag and the situation in Germany on the eve of the parliamentary elections.

4. Refusal of the European Commission to allocate funds for the recovery of the economies of Poland and Hungary after the pandemic.

 

ECONOMY.

1. News of quarantine and vaccination.

2. Law on the partial legalization of the cryptocurrency market.

3. Daniil Getmantsev announced that Ukraine would receive the next tranche from the IMF in October.

4. The Rada adopted the draft law on the biogas market as a basis.

5. Overdue debts of citizens on quick loans have reached 15 billion.

6. The NSDC wants to know the real owners of Oblenergo and requires the implementation of the OECD corporate governance principles in Naftogaz.

 

 

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

First, within the framework of the confrontation for influence on the country's judicial system, as well as the suppression and discrediting of the main opponents of the authorities, the media are beginning to intensify the topic of the so-called. “Vovk tapes” directed against the head of the KSU A. Tupitsky and directly the head of the UASK P. Vovk, the former head of the President's Office Andrei Bogdan and the deputy head of the administration under V. Yanukovych Andrei Portnov. The confrontation between the judiciary and V. Zelensky is escalating.

Secondly, at the local level, within the framework of the trend towards the administrative and economic strengthening of the president's power, in the struggle for control over the hometown of V. Zelensky, the process of pressure on and begins. O. Mayor of Krivoy Rog. Yu. Vilkul and representatives of his team are being searched as part of the investigation into the version of "driving to suicide" by the mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov.

Thirdly, this week the topic of publication of investigations about the "Wagnerian case", which the Ukrainian authorities seemed to have managed to "hush up" last spring, became topical. First, the Bulgarian journalist Hristo Grozev from the Bellingcat edition made an announcement of the release of his film, and then the corresponding investigative story was released by the CNN agency. For the Office of the President of Ukraine, this topic is extremely toxic, in view of rumors that it was from the presidential entourage that information was "leaked" into the Russian Federation, which caused the failure of the special operation. The United States and Britain are aware of the undesirability of raising this topic for the team of V. Zelensky, and therefore they use it to blackmail the Ukrainian authorities into introducing models of judicial reform and corporate governance reform that are beneficial to Western partners.

Fourth, the trend towards liberal-conservative confrontation continued in the EU this week. The Brussels bureaucracy has blocked the allocation of billions of dollars in aid for the post-covid reconstruction of Poland and Hungary due to the fact that the latter's authorities pursue a conservative value policy and tend to sovereignization from transnational liberal structures. In the future, this confrontation will only grow.

Fifth, while in Afghanistan the Taliban finally suppressed all resistance to their regime and formed an interim government, many countries around the world are thinking about how to deal with Kabul under the new government. While the G7 states are only wondering about this question, China, Russia and Pakistan, in the spirit of Realpolitik, are already actively in contact with the Taliban. This creates good preconditions for their economic participation in the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan and taking advantage of its transit potential.

Sixth, the partial legalization of crypto assets in Ukraine, in accordance with the law adopted this week by the Verkhovna Rada, is aimed at removing the turnover of these assets from the shadows and taxing them to fill the country's budget. This completely fits into the trend of total fiscalization, which has been carried out by the current government for several months now.

Seventh, according to the NSDC decision, key energy companies of the country such as Energoatom and Naftogaz will, de facto, be removed from state control by diluting its influence, turning Energoatom into a joint stock company. In addition, the formation of the top management of Naftogaz should become even more transparent.

 

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly.

As part of the confrontation for influence on the country's judicial system, as well as the suppression and discrediting of the main opponents of the government, the media begin to intensify the topic of the so-called. "Vovk tapes", directed against the head of the KSU A. Tupitsky and directly the head of the OASK P. Vovk, the former head of the President's Office Andrei Bogdan and the deputy head of the administration under V. Yanukovych Andrei Portnov. The confrontation between the judiciary and V. Zelensky is escalating.

At the local level, within the framework of the trend for the administrative and economic strengthening of the president's power, in the struggle for control over the hometown of V. Zelensky, the process of pressure on and begins. O. Mayor of Krivoy Rog. Yu. Vilkul and representatives of his team are being searched as part of the investigation into the version of "driving to suicide" by the mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov.

 

1. The Rada did not support the appeal to grant Ukraine the status of the main US ally outside NATO.

On September 8, the Verkhovna Rada did not support the draft resolution No. 5380 "On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the Congress of the United States of America regarding granting Ukraine the bilateral status of the main ally of the United States of America outside NATO (MNNA)". Oleksiy Goncharenko, MP from European Solidarity, was the author of this project, who noted that deepening bilateral partnership between Ukraine and the United States would become an important component of responding to the challenges of Russian aggression. Despite the fact that the announced initiative on the eve collected 153 signatures of people's deputies, most of whom are "Servants of the People", the document was supported by only 24 people's deputies.

Previously, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova warned that the status of the main US ally outside NATO (MNNA) is suitable for countries that do not plan or cannot join the North Atlantic Alliance. And Ukraine already has the status of NATO's Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP), and it provides great opportunities for enhanced cooperation with the Alliance, improving interoperability and developing the capabilities of the forces.

For her part, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishina considers the initiative of the deputies to ask the US Congress to grant Ukraine the bilateral status of the main ally of the United States of America outside NATO (MNNA) as inappropriate and untimely. Such an initiative of the people's deputies in a few days after the meeting of the US and Ukrainian presidents "looks like a deliberate and short-sighted political sabotage."

In general, this initiative of the European Solidarity Party was a banal provocation against the Servant of the People. Its goal was to provoke dissatisfaction with Vladimir Zelensky from the United States, which now does not want to excessively aggravate relations with Russia, if the mono-majority supported the draft resolution, and in case of failure of the resolution (which happened), to accuse the Servant of the People "Betrayal of the ideals of Euro-Atlantic integration."

 

2. The situation around the Constitutional Court.

This week, Slidstvo.info analyzed the so-called "Vovk tapes" - secret recordings of conversations from the office of the head of the Kiev District Administrative Court (OASK) Pavel Vovk. According to journalists, the tapes recorded that the head of the District Administrative Court of Kiev, Pavel Vovk, the deputy head of the administration during the times of President V. Yanukovych, Andrey Portnov, and the former head of the President's Office, Andrey Bogdan, could promote the abolition of the law on lustration. At the same time, they influenced the process of dismissing the head of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine Stanislav Shevchuk, who was fired from office in May 2019.

Andrei Portnov said that the information about his possible influence on the Constitutional Court does not correspond to reality. And the former head of the President's Office, Andriy Bogdan, and the head of the Kiev District Administrative Court, Pavel Vovk, refused to comment.

In turn, the current head of the KSU Alexander Tupitsky in a commentary to Slidstvo.info said that S. Shevchuk was legally dismissed, and that he did not communicate with A. Portnov, A. Bogdan or P. Vovk on this issue.

Currently, between V. Zelensky, Western partners and the judiciary there is a fierce struggle for influence on the country's judicial system. As a result, between the Office of the President and the judiciary periodically there is an exchange of "blows." In this case, along with A. Tupitsky, the message is also directed against P. Vovk, the head of the Kiev District Administrative Court, which often becomes an obstacle as conductors of foreign influence inside Ukraine (NABU, SAP, "anti-corruptionists," the Suprun team, etc.). ), and for the Office of the President and the Cabinet of Ministers, since the jurisdiction of this court includes consideration of all claims related to decisions of the central executive authorities. In April 2021, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted to the Rada an urgent bill on the liquidation of the UASC. For its part, NABU suspects the head of the OASK P. Vovk and the judges of the OASK of creating a criminal group to seize power.

Earlier, the Supreme Court overturned the decree of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on the abolition of the decree on the appointment of Alexander Tupitsky as a judge of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, which called into question the entire governance model that was built V. Zelensky: NSDC decisions, sanctions, actions against the CCU. Now the decisions made by the KSU by an incompetent composition, as well as the appointment of other candidates to the positions of the dismissed judges, becomes illegitimate. In connection with the statements of A. Tupitsky and A. Kasminin (suspended judges of the Constitutional Court), and. O. Head of the Constitutional Court S. Golovaty sent a statement of self-rejection.

The State Bureau of Investigation has opened criminal proceedings, in which it checks the legality of the decision of the Supreme Court (SC) to repeal the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the former head of the Constitutional Court, Alexander Tupitsky. As a result of pressure, a massive resignation of judges begins in the Supreme Court.

In turn, the KSU opened proceedings on the provisions of the law on the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI). The applicant asks to declare unconstitutional the provisions of the law on the RRB, according to which the director of the bureau is dismissed from his post by the President of Ukraine. In particular, the fact that the powers of the director of the RRB and his deputies are terminated ahead of schedule. Probably, we are talking about the first director of the RRB Roman Truba, whom V. Zelensky fired from his post in December 2019.

It can be stated that the intensity of the confrontation between the OP and the KSU continues to grow. The First Vice Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk considers it necessary to "reboot" the KSU. He advised the judges of the Constitutional Court, whose personal position “impedes the idea of ​​the development of the state,” “step aside and put an end to it”. In addition, R. Stefanchuk announced that serious changes await in the justice sector. “We know how busy the judicial system is. But a large layer is small matters, they can be considered by people who are trusted by local communities, ”he said.

Along with this, it became known that in order to reduce budget expenditures, deputies from the ruling Servant of the People party have prepared a bill on a new "road map" for Ukrainian courts. The document proposes to reduce the number of operating local courts by three to four times. Today, there are about 600 local courts in Ukraine. If we compare this with the statement of R. Stefanchuk about “solving small matters by people who trust the communities”, the prospect of a return to the practice of “justices of the peace” that existed in the Russian Empire and a number of other states before the First World War appears. It consisted in the fact that economic disputes for an amount less than the standard determined by the state could be resolved by people without special legal education, elected by the community. Compared to the professional judiciary (even in its current form), this is a clear degradation.

 

3. The police raided the houses of the acting mayor of Krivoy Rog Yuriy Vilkul and his son Alexander Vilkul.

On September 7, it became known that the police had searched the house of the acting mayor of Krivoy Rog Yuriy Vilkul, as well as his son Alexander Vilkul. The case concerned the investigation of the death of the mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov. Nikolay Batyuk, deputy head of the department of the Main Investigation Department of the National Police, said that in this case the investigators conducted 16 searches, "during which mainly mobile phones, computer equipment, and flash drives were seized."

At the same time, the police said that an inspection is being carried out in the city council of Krivoy Rog, which began during the life of K. Pavlov. We are talking about possible abuse by the authorities. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Denis Monastyrsky said that the main version of the death of the mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov is suicide. But the version is not excluded and "driving to suicide", in connection with which a number of searches were carried out.

There was an attempt to search the place of residence of the 87-year-old mother-in-law of Konstantin Pavlov Lydia Bishuk, but she was not at home. Law enforcers did not break the doors. It is noted that the employees of the main investigation department of the National Police conducted searches at the deputy mayors Alexander Katrichenko and Yevgeny Udod and the deputy of the city council Victoria Tretyak. During the searches, nothing illegal was found. An important fact is that it was Victoria Tretyak who actively questioned the version of suicide. She told a number of media outlets that beatings were visible on the body of the deceased mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov. Basically, K. Pavlov's associates do not believe in the version of suicide put forward by the police.

At present, it is obvious that the version of "driving to suicide", having previously linked up with checks on possible abuses of local authorities, the police are trying to incriminate the acting. Mayor of Krivoy Rog Y. Vilkul, representatives of his team and, possibly, members of the family of K. Pavlov himself. At the same time, the likelihood of possible pressure from other political forces and groups of influence (for example, local representatives of the "Servant of the People") on Konstantin Pavlov has not yet been considered.

Recall that after the death of Konstantin Pavlov, Yuri Vilkul was elected by the majority of the deputies as the secretary of the city council, which means the acting mayor cities until the next elections. Alexander Kotlyar (from the Servant of the People party), to whom the duties of a mayor were to be transferred, resigned.

Thus, within the framework of the general course for the administrative and economic strengthening of the president's power, the Servant of the People team is defeated and loses control over the hometown of V. Zelensky. It will not be easy for the president's team to take revenge in the upcoming elections, since the Servant of the People candidate in Krivoy Rog does not have a starting advantage. But another loss in his hometown will greatly damage the reputation of V. Zelensky, and this cannot be allowed in the OP.

Therefore, as we wrote earlier, in the current situation, there is a high probability that the process of pressure on the main electoral competitors - Yu. Vilkul and representatives of his team - by the authorities - will continue.

 

4. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings. The attitude of citizens to the world's leading politicians.

According to the data of the poll of the Sociological Group "Rating" published on September 7, V. Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating - 31% of respondents are ready to support him. In comparison with the poll published at the end of July (27.7%), the president's rating slightly increased (+ 3.3%). This is followed by:

• P. Poroshenko - 13.3% (unchanged).

• Yuri Boyko - 10.9% (+ 0.9%).

• Y. Tymoshenko - 9.2% (-2.2%).

The rating of trust in politicians is headed by Vladimir Zelensky, 50% of respondents trust him, 48% do not trust him; balance: (+ 2%). Since July, the balance of confidence in the president has increased by 9%.

• Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 26%, not trusted by 71%.

• 26% trust Yulia Tymoshenko, 72% do not.

• 23% trust Yuriy Boyko, 58% do not.

The anti-rating of politicians is headed by:

P. Poroshenko: 45% - would not vote for him under any circumstances (in July it was also 45%). This is followed by:

38% - Y. Tymoshenko (in July it was 35%).

35% - Yuri Boyko (in July it was 34%).

25% - O. Lyashko (in July it was 26%).

24% - V. Zelensky (in July it was 29%).

The leader in the parliamentary rating is:

"Servant of the people" - 25.8%. In comparison with the poll conducted by the "Rating" company at the end of July 2021, the party's rating changed within the margin of error (+ 1.7%). The CH rating has not actually changed since April 2021. The following are:

 • “European Solidarity” - 14.1%, has not changed significantly.

 • “Opposition Platform - For Life” - 12.4%, changes within the margin of error.

 • "Batkivshchyna" - 10.6%. (-2.2%).

Among the key world leaders, the best citizens of Ukraine relate to:

 • German Chancellor Angela Merkel (73% - positive, 19% - negative)

 • US President Joseph Biden (64% positive, 19% negative).

 • President of France Emmanuel Macron - 57% positively, 19% negative, 23% found it difficult to assess or do not know this.

 • President of Poland Andrzej Duda was positively assessed by 54%, negative - by 10%, found it difficult to assess or do not know this - 37%.

• 59% of the respondents have a negative attitude towards Alexander Lukashenko, 34% have a positive attitude.

• 81% have a negative attitude towards Vladimir Putin, only 15% positively.

At the same time, in dynamics since 2020, the positive attitude of citizens towards Angela Merkel has decreased by 3%; Emmanuel Macron increased by 6%; to Andrzej Duda increased by 7%.

To Joseph Biden from April 2021. the positive attitude of citizens increased by 7%. The attitude of the citizens of Ukraine towards Vladimir Putin has not changed significantly over the past few years. But the attitude towards Alexander Lukashenko has changed dramatically over the past two years. In 2019. 67% of Ukrainian citizens perceived it positively and only 15% negatively.

According to the results of the rating, it is clear that V. Zelensky's visit to the United States, as well as the events held on Independence Day, had a positive effect on the ratings of the authorities or on the mood of sociologists, since such a rapid rise in ratings over such a short period still raises doubts. As a reminder, back in mid-August, the president’s ratings, according to the “Rating” research, showed a downward trend. And at the end of July, the balance of trust was (-7%); now - (+ 2%). That is, since the end of July, the balance of confidence in the president has increased by 9%.

In any case, the effect of such methods is likely to be short-lived. It should be noted that the Servant of the People's rating remains stable and, despite the efforts made, has not actually shown growth.

 

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

This week, the topic of publication of investigations into the "Wagnerian case", which the Ukrainian authorities seemed to have managed to "hush up" last spring, became topical. First, the Bulgarian journalist Hristo Grozev from the Bellingcat edition made an announcement of the release of his film, and then the corresponding investigative story was released by the CNN agency. For the Office of the President of Ukraine, this topic is extremely toxic, in view of rumors that it was from the presidential entourage that information was "leaked" into the Russian Federation, which caused the failure of the special operation. The United States and Britain are aware of the undesirability of raising this topic for the team of V. Zelensky, and therefore, they use it to blackmail the Ukrainian authorities in introducing models of judicial reform and corporate governance reform that are beneficial to Western partners.

In the EU this week the trend towards liberal-conservative opposition continued. The Brussels bureaucracy has blocked the allocation of billions of dollars in aid for the post-covid reconstruction of Poland and Hungary due to the fact that the latter's authorities pursue a conservative value policy and tend to sovereignization from transnational liberal structures. In the future, this confrontation will only grow.

While in Afghanistan the Taliban finally suppressed all resistance to their regime and formed an interim government, many countries around the world are thinking about how to deal with Kabul under the new government. While the G7 states are only wondering about this question, China, Russia and Pakistan, in the spirit of Realpolitik, are already actively in contact with the Taliban. This creates good preconditions for their economic participation in the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan and taking advantage of its transit potential.

 

1. CNN's investigation of the "Wagnerian case" and the announcement of the publication of the results of the investigation of Hristo Grozev.

On September 5, Bulgarian journalist Hristo Grozev, who works with the British newspaper Bellingcat, announced the release of his long-awaited investigation into the Wagnerites in three different formats, and added that a text version of the material would be released within the next month.

On September 8, the American television channel CNN released the previously promised story about the "Wagnerites". What happened in Minsk on July 29 last year, the agency calls "an elaborate intelligence operation of Ukraine with the knowledge and with the likely support of the United States."

Three former high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence officials allegedly provided exclusive information about this story to CNN, who, according to them, lured the "Wagnerites" to Belarus for 18 months. They were promised five thousand dollars a month's salary to guard Venezuela's oil rigs.

This bait has allegedly caught hundreds of potential job seekers in such dangerous jobs.

CNN says that their spies showed one of the evidence of the participation of the so-called "Wagnerites" in the armed conflict in Donbas against Ukraine - a video with the wreckage of a recently shot down Ukrainian military aircraft (probably Il-76 in Luhansk) - four claimants were associated with it …

Two other applicants allegedly witnessed the launch of a rocket that shot down a Malaysian Boeing. In total, 28 out of 33 people were associated with Ukraine.

The publication interestingly portrays the role of the Americans in this story - on the one hand, confirming their awareness, and on the other, taking the United States out of the blow for the failure of the operation.

Further quote:

“Obviously, this was of interest to American intelligence too, although US officials deny their direct role.

According to Ukrainian intelligence officials, the Ukrainian-led operation received American money, technical assistance and CIA recommendations on how to lure Russian mercenaries.

A senior US official told CNN these claims are "false." He confirmed that US intelligence knew about the operation, but denied any involvement in it. "

In principle, the two testimonies cited by CNN journalists do not contradict each other, given that the agency's source in American intelligence may not at all consider the American side's assistance with planning and coordination as "participating in the operation."

Noteworthy is the fact that the CNN investigation does not disclose the reasons for the disruption of the special operation. The agency does not say a word about the "leak" of information about its holding to the Russian side, be it from the Office of the President (as some political forces in Ukraine claim) or from somewhere else.

All this makes the current situation very similar to the blackmailing of the Ukrainian authorities by the British and American elites. By publishing one investigation in one of the most popular media outlets, and openly hinting at the imminent release of other (more detailed) investigations on the same topic, the Americans and the British seem to be trying to make Volodymyr Zelensky more accommodating on a number of issues. What these questions are, was once again made clear by the recent meeting of the Ukrainian president with Joe Biden. Americans are interested in establishing control over the Ukrainian judicial system, control over large state corporations in our country and appointing their own person to the position of head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office.

Probably, the desire of the Joe Biden administration to achieve these goals as soon as possible is the main reason for the sudden media "reanimation" of the story with the "Wagnerian case." Zelenskiy is being given to understand that this time it will not work to “get off topic” and, according to Ukrainian custom, sabotage the fulfillment of the undertaken obligations.

Attempt by the Office of the President to serve out an information attack by publishing the results of the investigation of the parliamentary commission with the deputy Maryana Bezugla, until it looks effective.

 

2. The Taliban took control of the Panjshir region and appointed an interim government.

On September 6, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that the Taliban had established full control over the Panjshir province, which had previously become the center of resistance to the new regime, led by the son of the famous “Panjshir lion” Ahmad Shah Masud, Ahmad Masud Jr.

After taking control of the Panjshir for the war in Afghanistan, a Taliban spokesman said "there is no longer any excuse."

During the previous week, battles of medium intensity had been going on in Panjshir. The Taliban's operation to gain control of the recalcitrant region proceeded fairly quickly and without major complications.

The impression was that the leaders of the anti-Taliban resistance did not intend to fight seriously, but only sought to "raise the stakes" in negotiations about their future in the political configuration of the "new Afghanistan". If so, they clearly miscalculated, yielding to the moment when it was necessary to abandon the rate hike and agree to the terms proposed by the Taliban.

The victims of this short-sightedness of their leaders were ordinary soldiers of the former Afghan army and tribal militias, who seriously believed the tales of their readiness to "fight the Taliban to the end."

Meanwhile, the Taliban have announced appointments to the new Afghan government. At a press conference held in Kabul on Tuesday, September 7, the representative of the Zabihullah Mujahid movement announced that Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhund will become the acting head of the new government.

According to Mujahid, all positions in the government have been appointed on a temporary basis.

Mohammad Hasan Akhund was a close associate of Mullah Mullah Omar, one of the founders of the Taliban and head of state during the first Taliban rule in 1996-2001. Akhund's deputy will be Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who until now headed the Taliban's political bureau.

Post and. O. Interior Minister received Sirajuddin Haqqani, the founder of the network named after him, which the United States considers a terrorist group. The son of the founder of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, Mullah Mohammad Yakub has been nominated for the post of defense minister. Amir Khan Muttaki has been appointed to the post of foreign minister, and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai will be his deputy.

Mohammad Hasan Akhund, Abdul Ghani Baradar, Sirajuddin Haqqani and other members of the Haqqani network are under UN sanctions. Anyway, it is worth noting that this is perhaps the only case in recent decades when almost all members of the newly appointed government were previously either wanted for terrorism or were in American prisons.

Meanwhile, the major players in world politics now face the question of how to develop relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban came to power.

On September 5, it became known that the G7 countries at the level of foreign ministers are planning to hold a meeting and discuss issues related to the situation in Afghanistan. This was announced by Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi.

According to him, it was initially planned to invite Russia and China to participate in the discussion, which "have some influence on the situation in Afghanistan."

However, later the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova said that Russia would not participate in the ministerial meeting of the G7 countries on the situation in Afghanistan.

Zakharova noted that the Russian side has no understanding regarding the meeting, since there was no talk of holding it in the G7 format. As for the partner countries, the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs added that they do not have an understanding of "what they want from themselves and the world around them."

This position of Russia is understandable, because, unlike the NATO countries, which are forced to evacuate from Afghanistan not only their military, but also diplomats and private contractors, the Russian embassy, ​​along with the Chinese and Pakistani, works quite calmly in Kabul and under the Taliban.

The development of diplomatic contacts with the new Afghan authorities, even without their formal recognition, promises Moscow promising contracts for participation in the construction of infrastructure facilities on the territory of the newly formed "Islamic Emirate".

 

3. Farewell speech of Angela Merkel before the Bundestag and the situation in Germany on the eve of the parliamentary elections.

On September 7, Angela Merkel addressed the current Bundestag ahead of the parliamentary elections on 26 September. Her speech lasted 14 minutes. The German Chancellor spoke about the fight against climate change, the development of "green" energy, as well as countering terrorism and cybercrime. In addition, Merkel noted the importance of vaccination, and also urged fellow citizens to go through this procedure.

Also in her speech, Angela Merkel supported the candidate from the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Unions (CDU / CSU) Armin Lasheta, because of which she was forced to respond to the disapproving cries of the deputies.

Among the possible coalitions without the participation of her own party, the CDU / CSU, she singled out the association of social democrats and "Greens", after which politicians from the "Left Party" began to express their indignation. Merkel previously spoke directly about her unwillingness to see this force in the government coalition.

Further, the quote from Merkel:

“It is not at all the same who will be in the next government. Either it will be a government with Social Democrats and Greens, which takes into account the support of the left, or at least does not exclude such a development of events ... I'm just telling the truth. "

This unpleasant prospect seems to be prompting Merkel to ponder fresh sociology. The Social Democratic Party of Germany, three weeks before the elections to the Bundestag, expands its rating gap over other political parties. This is evidenced by the results of a recent public opinion poll conducted by the sociological service INSA at the request of the newspaper Bild.

According to the study, if elections to the Bundestag were held in the coming days, the SPD would receive 26% of the vote (plus 1 percentage point over the previous week). 20.5% of voters (plus 0.5 points) would vote for the conservative CDU / CSU bloc. The Greens would get 15.5% of the vote, and the Free Democratic Party 12.5% ​​(minus 1 point).

The rating of the right-wing "Alternative for Germany" has not changed: 11% of voters would vote for it, 6.5% for the "left" (minus 0.5 percentage points).

The previous day, the results of another poll, also carried out by INSA, were presented, this time for the newspaper Bild am Sontag. In accordance with them, the SPD would have won the support of 25% of voters, the CDU / CSU bloc - 20%, the Greens - 16%.

Thus, the scenario described by Merkel of a coalition without the CDU / CSU, led by the Social Democrats, is becoming more and more real.

From a practical point of view, this will mean an even greater tilt of the German leadership towards the globalist "green course". But for Ukraine, the change of the ruling party in Germany is unlikely to change anything. On the main issues that are significant for relations between our countries, such as Nord Stream 2 and positions on resolving the conflict in Donbass, the German Social Democrats hold positions almost identical to those of Angela Merkel and the CDU / CSU.

 

4. Refusal of the European Commission to allocate funds for the recovery of the economies of Poland and Hungary after the pandemic.

On September 6, it became known that the EU allocated money to 18 members of the association for economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, but Hungary and Poland will remain without the support of Brussels. According to the EU, they do not respect common European principles and undermine the idea of ​​the rule of law.

Hungary and Poland were to receive € 7.2 billion and € 57 billion over several years, respectively. However, the European Commission has so far decided not to provide these funds. Brussels believes that Budapest and Warsaw are adopting laws that run counter to common European standards - on the rule of law and freedom of the media.

The state will not receive the money until the European Commission makes sure that Hungary and Poland comply with the EU requirements.

The most painful for the European Union were the Polish judicial reforms and the Hungarian law banning LGBT propaganda.

The Polish government has asked the country's Constitutional Court to rule that EU norms are not superior to national legislation. And the Hungarian parliament has passed amendments to the law on combating pedophilia, which restrict the dissemination of information about LGBT people.

In March 2021, Budapest and Warsaw challenged the rule of law in an EU court. If the authority confirms the operation of this mechanism, then Hungary and Poland will no longer be able to challenge it. The only option is to leave the European Union, but this scenario does not seem very likely so far, even despite the appearance in the Hungarian pro-government press of open discussions on the possibility of the country's exit from the EU, following the example of Britain.

In addition to the banal shortage of funds in the context of a pandemic and the need to sponsor the economies of Southern Europe, mired in loans, the reason for the confrontation between Warsaw and Budapest and Brussels is ideological differences.

Both Hungary and Poland are ruled by conservative political forces with a bias towards nationalism. State sovereignty and the ability to establish order on the territory entrusted to them really matter for them. The Polish ruling Law and Justice Party, in addition, is also clerical. Some of the reforms she has undertaken, including cutting back on the number of grounds for legal abortion, are the result of following Catholic beliefs.

Of course, the Brussels bureaucracy, which is based on the principles of liberal globalization and the propaganda of the dictatorship of minorities, is not at all satisfied with such a policy of the Polish and Hungarian authorities. As you can see, we are no longer talking about any appeals or admonitions, but about the refusal to provide grants and loans for tens of billions of euros. And this is in the face of the need to recover from a pandemic.

 

ECONOMY.

Briefly:

The IMF and the World Bank perform a wide range of functions in Ukraine, lobbying the interests of Western pharmaceutical companies and providing loans for the purchase of the coronavirus vaccine. Along the way, Ukraine is interesting to Western partners in terms of its land resources and energy capacity. The IMF stimulates reforms in these areas by issuing tranches or postponing them if the pace of fulfillment of obligations by Ukraine is unsatisfactory.

Partial legalization of crypto assets in Ukraine is aimed at bringing the turnover of these assets out of the shadows and taxing them to fill the country's budget. This is fully in line with the trend towards total fiscalization.

According to the NSDC decision, key energy companies of the country such as Energoatom and Naftogaz will, de facto, be removed from state control by diluting its influence, turning Energoatom into a joint stock company. In addition, the formation of the top management of Naftogaz should become even more transparent.

 

1. News of quarantine and vaccination.

On September 8, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko met with Arupa Banerjee, World Bank Regional Director for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. Representatives of the World Bank announced that they are ready to provide Ukraine with 230 million dollars within the framework of the international COVAX initiative until December 2021.

In addition to helping in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, the parties discussed the reform of the financial and banking sector of Ukraine, the implementation of the pension reform and the conditions for obtaining the "Second Development Policy Loan in the Field of Economic Recovery" (DPL). Recall that in July the Ministry of Finance confirmed the receipt of a loan of $ 350 million from the World Bank to Ukraine for the systemic project "First Loan for Development Policy in the Sphere of Economic Recovery." Banerjee noted that the next DPL will focus on green transition and energy sector reforms. Work on the creation of the project will begin on September 9.

The head of the Ministry of Finance stressed that one of the department's priorities is the implementation of the pension reform in Ukraine. The WB, in turn, noted that they are ready to support Ukraine at every stage of reforming the pension system. Another issue on the agenda of the meeting was the development of the WB Country Partnership Strategy. Banerjee named the main areas: energy, agriculture, and transport.

Thus, the World Bank is lobbying in Ukraine for the interests of Western pharmaceutical companies producing vaccines against coronavirus, providing a loan for the purchase of the vaccine. In addition to the vaccine, the World Bank is interested in a wide range of issues regarding Ukraine, namely, pension reform, as well as reforms in the transport, agricultural, and energy sectors.

The main task is to continue Ukraine's integration into the world economy as a market for Western goods and a source of raw materials and cheap labor.

On September 8, Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko announced new details on the quarantine, which will be introduced in September 2021. For the "yellow" level of quarantine, they want to relax the restrictions for those who received at least one dose of the vaccine, for the red one will need a full course of vaccinations. For example, the work of educational institutions in the yellow epidemiological level will not be limited, provided that 80% of teachers have documents certifying vaccination against coronavirus with at least one dose. Thus, the authorities will try to further motivate the population to get vaccinated against the coronavirus.

 

2. Law on the partial legalization of the cryptocurrency market.

On September 8, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the second reading the bill No. 3637 on cryptoassets. According to the head of the Ministry of Finance, the daily turnover of virtual assets in Ukraine is UAH 1 billion.

As the Minister of Digital Transformation Mikhail Fedorov noted in his Telegram, in Ukraine the daily turnover of virtual assets is UAH 1 billion, but it is in the shadows.

For this reason, international exchanges cannot enter Ukraine, the minister added. He also stressed that taxes are not paid on any transaction with virtual assets.

Thus, the partial legalization of the cryptocurrency market is also part of the course towards total fiscalization in Ukraine. The purpose of this law is to tax the turnover of crypto assets in Ukraine.

 

3. Daniil Getmantsev announced that Ukraine would receive the next tranche from the IMF in October.

On September 9, Daniil Getmantsev told reporters in the Rada that he predicted the allocation of a tranche of $ 700 million by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Ukraine will receive it in early October. According to him, the IMF has certain technical issues that need to be fulfilled in order to receive the tranche. “All that needs to be done from us is a bill on amendments to the National Bank, amendments to the law on NABU and the draft budget for 2022, must be completed,” Getmantsev added.

Thus, the IMF oversees Ukraine in terms of performing basic functions of government, such as developing a budget for 2022 in advance, and the IMF is also interested in maintaining Western influence on NABU and NBU.

 

4. Rada adopted the law on the biogas market.

On September 9, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted as a basis the draft law No. 5464 "On Amendments to the Law of Ukraine" On Alternative Fuels "for the Development of Biomethane Production", which allows verification of purified biogas (biomethane) for use in the country's GTS.

"The purpose of the bill is to ensure the possibility of verification of purified biogas (biomethane), the physical and technical characteristics of which must comply with the requirements of regulatory legal acts for natural gas, issuing a guarantee of origin for the volume of such gas, forming a biomethane register," the press service of the parliament said.

The draft law introduces a mechanism for the development of the biomethane market, including the use of the Ukrainian GTS for physical or virtual export of biomethane to the markets of the European Union countries. However, this opportunity will only be realized in the long term.

The adoption of this bill coincides in time with the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2, which means the steadily fading interest in the Ukrainian GTS in terms of the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. They will try to replace Russian gas in the GTS with biomethane, but it will remain for domestic consumption.

 

5. Overdue debts of citizens on quick loans have reached 15 billion.

In the first half of 2021, Ukrainian microfinance organizations (MFOs) issued 7,152,636 quick loans in the amount of UAH 31.6 billion, which is 43% more money than in the first half of 2020, when the total amount of loans was 22 billion. This is reported by the platform for working with open data Opendatabot with reference to the data of the National Financial Services Commission and the NBU. "

The number of loans issued in Ukraine is growing from year to year: in 2019, an average of 982.5 thousand loans were issued every month, in 2020 - 1 million loans, and in 2021 they already issued 1.2 million, ”the message says. the total amount of unpaid debts on microcredits - its growth since the beginning of the year amounted to 6.5%. Now Ukrainians owe microfinance organizations UAH 14.9 billion for overdue loans. "Since the end of last year, the average loan amount increased by 9% from UAH 4059 to UAH 4417 ", - added to Opendatabot. They recalled that at the beginning of the year amendments to the law on lending came into force, affecting the sphere of microcredit financial organizations. In particular, the amount of fines and penalties cannot exceed two sizes of the amount received by a person if the loan is greater than 1 minimum wage (6 thousand UAH from January 1, 2021). True, this rule does not apply to smaller loans. Here, as before, the general rule applies - the amount of fines and penalties cannot exceed 50% credit. Even in winter, market participants expressed the opinion that these changes would not significantly affect the number of loans issued - and, as we can see now, they are right.

 

6. The NSDC wants to know the real owners of Oblenergo and requires the implementation of the OECD corporate governance principles in Naftogaz.

On August 28, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, by his decree, put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) "On measures to neutralize threats in the energy sector." It was instructed to ensure, by October 31, 2021, the implementation of the guidelines of corporate governance at state-owned enterprises of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine. The OECD principles cannot be introduced by a single decision of the authority. To do this, it is necessary to introduce specific, understandable and transparent procedures that will comply with the same OECD Principles. The first step is a transparent competitive selection of the supervisory board, and then the selection of the chairman and members of the board, and so, step by step, each element of the corporate governance system should be implemented. The two-month deadline looks at least unrealistic. It is also necessary to develop and submit in accordance with the established procedure to the Verkhovna Rada bills by September 30, 2021 "On the peculiarities of the formation of a joint-stock company" National nuclear energy generating company "Energoatom" [providing for the transformation of the company from a state-owned enterprise into a joint-stock company].

Within two weeks, together with the National Commission for Securities and the Stock Market, the National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Utilities, the State Property Fund of Ukraine (SPFU), the Antimonopoly Committee, the Security Service of Ukraine and the NSDC Office:

● analyze the ownership structure of all electricity distribution system operators and universal service providers and identify the real ultimate beneficial owners of such business entities;

● develop an effective mechanism to ensure the possibility of introducing temporary administration to business entities that carry out activities in the energy sector, in the event of a threat of violation of the security of electricity supply and / or violation of such subobjects of licensing requirements for the implementation of economic activities;

● together with the SPFU, by August 31, 2021, exclude from the list of objects of large privatization of state property and the list of objects of small privatization of state property owned by the state blocks of shares of operators of electricity distribution systems, with the subsequent determination of the Ministry of Energy as the body managing such blocks of shares; [This list of objects of large-scale privatization includes: "Kharkovoblenergo", "Zaporozhyeoblenergo", "Khmelnitskoblenergo", "Nikolaevoblenergo" and "Ternopolyoblenergo". They were planned to be auctioned this year. Cherkassyoblenergo is included in the list of small privatization objects. As of August 30, these properties were identified by the SPFU as being prepared for privatization.

Most of the electricity distribution system operators are privately owned and predominantly owned by Ukrainian oligarchs. After the decision of the NSDC, temporary administrations may be introduced in these companies.

● to ensure the transition from a commodity to a financial mechanism for imposing special duties on participants in the electricity market [For example, a commodity mechanism may provide for the imposed obligation to sell electricity at a certain price to certain consumers.]

● ensure the priority of providing gondola cars for the shipment of coal products by rail in accordance with the requests of coal enterprises (mines and central processing plants) by October 31, 2021;

● The Antimonopoly Committee, with the involvement of law enforcement agencies, if necessary, was instructed to check the compliance of the actions of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine for compliance with the legislation on the protection of economic competition in the sale of natural gas produced by business entities, related control relations [actually means gas produced "Ukrgasvydobuvannya"].

Thus, the country's key energy companies like Energoatom and Naftogaz will de facto be removed from state control by diluting its influence.

 

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

 

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.