How will look the parliamentary coalition and the opposition in 2016 – causes and consequences of the coalition crisis

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On Monday, the 19 of October, at 10.30, the press center of the information agency “Interfax-Ukraine” held a press conference on the topic “What will be the parliamentary coalition and the opposition in 2016 – causes and consequences of the coalition crisis,” which was attended by Director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management Ruslan Bortnik and an expert of UIPAM Anna Svidchenko. At this press conference the results of the expert studies on the topic: “The Coalition Crisis in Ukraine: Causes and Consequences” were presented.

A survey of more than 30 leading Ukrainian political scientists and experts was conducted by the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management from 24.09.15 till 11.10.15. The topic of the survey was “The coalition crisis in Ukraine.” The results of the survey have outlined the main reasons for the coalition crisis, revealed interesting trends regarding the interests of major figures of the current parliament and its influence, predicted the future composition of the coalition and the opposition and also predicted the possible date for early parliamentary elections.

According to experts, the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has the strongest, but not a decisive influence on the work of parliament. The level of his influence is a little more than 24%. However, the results showed, that not only the President has the main levers of the direction vector of the Verkhovna Rada: there are also financial and industrial groups – 21.73%, and the USA – 19% behind him.

The experts could not detect the primordial cause of the crisis, but almost all the experts agreed that the causes of the crisis are internal rather than external: factors such as “the impact of the interests of industrial and financial groups on each of the factions” (18 76%) and “actions of the President” (16.35%) were on the first place. The smallest wine is put by experts to the foreign influence (2.66%). Many factors, that deepen the crisis of the coalition, were provided by the experts. The highest rate among them – 35.87%, received a version of “constitutional reform.” At the same time the dominant factors that aggravate the parliamentary crisis are: the constitutional reform (35.87%), the agreement with the creditors (24.46%), the expiry of the Minsk Agreements (22.83%). The experts also indicated the main goals that are pursued by all parliamentary groups while the coalition crisis.

At the press conference possible variants of reformation of the coalition and the opposition in the spring of 2016 were presented. According to experts, the Coalition unconditionally will enter the “Petro Poroshenko’s Block” (probability 95%), the “Narodnyi Front” (91%) and the “Samopomich” (59%). The “Batkivshchyna” and the “Volia Narodu” got the same indicators – 45%.

The possible structure of the Opposition, according to experts, may consist of the “Radical Party” as a head (85%) and the “Oppositoin Block” (70%). With a probability of 55% the “Batkicshchyna” can also join them.

Also, the experts have concluded that the most possible scenario of a coalition crisis could be creating of “a new coalition” (33.53%) or “destruction of present coalition and reelections” (30.54%). Talking about the early parliamentary elections, the experts suggest the possibility of holding them in the “autumn 2016” (47.62%) or “spring 2016” (23.81%). The reasons of their conduction can by such factors as “exit of the coalition factions” (29.72%) and “the foreign influence” (23.84%).

Registration of journalists was held on the spot by their editorial certificates. You can get additional information by phone: (093) 757-75-65, uiamp2012@gmail.com, http://uiamp.org.ua/

The list of experts who participated in the survey

(who agreed to publication of their names)

Expert

Post

1. Anatoly Oktisyuk

Analyst of the International Centre of Advanced Studies

2. Andrew Miselyuk

Director of the “Dialogue” Institute

3. Alexander Motyl

Political scientist at Center of global changes and Management from Rutgers University

4. Anton Shekhovtsov

Expert on international issues of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation

5. Andrew Zolotarev

Director of the Center “Third Sector”

6. Yuriy Gavrilechko

Expert of the Public Safety Fund

7. Peter Oleshuk

Political scientist, lecturer of Kyiv National University named of Taras Shevchenko

8. Vladimir Tsibulko

Ukrainian politician, poet, translator

9. Viktor Taran

Ukrainian political scientist, journalist, expert of the Center of Political Studies and analysts

10. Nikolai Spiridonov

Political scientist and expert of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management

11. Alexandra Reshmedilova

Ph.D., political scientist

12. Pavel Rudyakov

Political scientist, director of the information-analytical center “Perspective”

13. Valentin Gladkih

Political analyst, expert of analytical group “Leviathan”

14. Konstantin Fedorenko

Expert of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation

15. Igor Petrenko

Political scientist

16. Andrew Mishyn

Executive Director of the “Ukrainian politics” Fund

17. Anna Malkina

Doctor of Political Sciences

18. Alexander Dudchak

Political scientist, economist

19. Viktor Kaspruk

Political scientist

20. Kiril Molchanov

Political scientist

21. Roman Travin

Political scientist , director of the Eastern Ukrainian Centre of Strategic Initiatives

 

 
http://www.slideshare.net/ruslanbortnik3/oalition-crisis-in-ukraine

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