Before the election less than a year, and a low level of confidence in the presidential team does not give her confidence in a fair victory, experts state. They note that promises are not fulfilled, and the citizens are waiting for the establishment of peace, suppression of corruption and restoration industry.
“The end of the war, we are not talking”
25 may marks 4 years since the election of Petro Poroshenko as President of Ukraine. To this date the Fund “Democratic initiatives” has conducted a survey among 55 leading political experts. Most of the experts (32) believe that, most likely, the President is elected for a second term, but some chances he has.
Almost a third of experts (16) are inclined to believe that Poroshenko will be re-elected for a second term, but I have doubts about this. Only six experts are absolutely convinced that President Poroshenko will be gone. The survey was conducted may 16-23.
The political scientist Ruslan Bortnik told the media : “Among all Ukrainian presidents since 1991, Poroshenko most unsuccessful. The promises the President gave Ukrainian people, not made”.
The analyst notes that chief among the promises was the establishment of peace in the country. But now, he says, Ukraine has become much further from peace in the Donbas than it was in 2014.
Note that this month the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) in the Donbas was converted to the new format – Operation of the United forces. The command is transmitted from the SBU to the army General staff. From intelligence agencies to the military leadership passed according to law on the reintegration of Donbass.
Diplomat, the head of Fund “Maidan foreign Affairs” Bohdan Yaremenko told the media: “the So-called law on reintegration, from the point of view Poroshenko, is intended to accomplish several tasks: to increase his personal powers and control over military units, which he could obtain only in conditions of martial law, and find a way out of the legal conflict the use of Armed Forces without a Declaration of martial law. As you can see, the end of the war we are not talking”.
At the same time, research conducted by the Sociological group “Rating” showed that answering the question, “which of these areas do you expect the primary changes from the next President of Ukraine?” , 67% of respondents said that they expect from the new President steps in to end the fighting in the East, 57% – to strengthen the fight against corruption. The revival of industry under the new President I hope the 38% of respondents.
Poverty and corruption
Bortnik says: “the Promise to fight corruption has turned into something that the President was headed. Economic condition of the country deteriorated and it shows the fact that the purchasing power of Ukrainians lowest in Europe.”
Note that according to the Association of suppliers of retail chains over the past year in Ukraine, the purchasing power of people with low incomes has decreased by 17%. And despite the fact that the minimum wage has increased by 16%.
According to official data, consumer inflation in Ukraine up to 2017 was 13.7% , in 2016 – by 12.4%, in 2015 it is 43.3% in 2014 to 24.9%.
Taking into account the devaluation of the national currency from 7.9 to 26.1 hryvnia to the dollar has depreciated incomes and savings of the population. If in 2013 the minimum wage exceeded $ 150, the minimum pension – $ 110, now minimum wage is 142 dollars, and minimum pension – $ 55.
In connection with the tariff increase, without a proportional income growth, the number of families not able to pay for utilities services over the last three years has increased 5.8 times.
If in 2014, 1.5 million families could not pay utilities on your own, then in 2017 this figure and amounted to 8.8 million families. According to the NGO “Public audit”, the total number of poor in 2017 totaled 24.64 million or 58.7% of the total population of Ukraine.
At the end of last year in the global ranking of Transparency International “corruption perception Index”, Ukraine received 30 points out of a possible 100 and ranked 130 out of 180 countries. And in April it became known that Ukraine took the first place in the level of corruption in 41 countries. This is stated in the study, conducted by Ipsos MORI on order of the audit firm Ernst & Young.
“Among 41 countries in Europe, Middle East, India and Africa ranked first, Ukraine – 88% of respondents answered in the affirmative”, – stated in the study that even in 2015, Ukraine ranked only seventh place.
Ten-fold drop in
In the presidential elections on 25 may 2014 Petro Poroshenko received 54.7% of the vote. For the first time after the elections of 1991, the second round has been scheduled, because the results of the first round becomes the President, the candidate receiving more than 50% of the vote.
In the elections in 2014, Petro Poroshenko walked Yulia Tymoshenko (received 12,8%), Oleg Lyashko (8,3%), Anatoly Gritsenko (5,4 %), Sergey Tigipko (5.2%) and Mykhaylo Dobkin (3%). Overall there were 23 candidates.
Now, the rating of the incumbent President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has fallen to the level of 5.5%, this is stated in the results of the sociological research group “Rating” the results of the survey “Socio-political mood of the population: new challenges”, held in April 2018.
President Poroshenko does not fall into the three leaders of the presidential race. The head of State shared sixth place with the leader of “Radical party” Oleg Lyashko.
The leader was the head of the party “Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko with the support of 8.8%. The second place is given to the Chairman of the party “Civic position” Anatoly Gritsenko, with a rating of -6,6%, third place to the leader “Opalocka” Yuriy Boyko with 6%.
In the presidential rating from the Kiev international Institute of sociology (KIIS) Petro Poroshenko is in fourth place. According to the KIIS, among all respondents, 8% would vote for leader of the “Fatherland” Yulia Tymoshenko, and 6.3% – for the leader of the party “Civic position” Anatoly Gritsenko, 6,1% – for the leader of “Radical party” Oleg Lyashko and only 6% – for the incumbent head of state.
Experts differ in opinion regarding the future of the presidential team. For the presidential elections scheduled for the end of March next year, and parliamentary at the end of October 2019, and low ratings don’t give her hopes of victory.
Blogger Vyacheslav was Cecile admits that elections can not take place. “The power goes to the bottom so fast that no time to sit down at the lifeboats. This could push her into any decisions, including the abolition of the post of the President basically…. The power elite can go on any adventure. What it is: the Abolition of elections? “Constitutional reform”? Offensive in Donetsk and the imposition of martial law?”- he wrote on Facebook.