The power rating is approaching the “death zone” – the election may not be

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The President’s party in seventh place in the polls, and he on the fifth. Experts predict a further decline in living standards, and hence – of power ratings. According to them, Bank is not interested in the fact that the elections took place at all.

“Zone of death” for the ranking of power will start from 5%

Less than half of citizens of Ukraine, 46%, definitely plan to come to the elections to the Verkhovna Rada in October of next year, and only one in four are likely to go vote than not. Willingness to come to the presidential elections in March 2019 above: almost half of the respondents will definitely go, and every fifth more likely than not. This is evidenced by the results of the polling group “Rating” conducted from 20 July to 3 August.

The political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes that the survey showed “the standing still of all the key players and the degradation of the candidates from power and understanding that everything will be resolved through the swing and at the finish of jerks”.

Note that in the rating of the party leader “Batkivshchyna”, which is ready to support 19.5% of those planning to vote and undecided.

For the “Opposition bloc” vote of 11.4%, “Civil position” of 11.2%, for the party “servant of the people” — 10,5%. 7.2% is ready to vote for the party “For life”, 7% for the Radical party, 6.5% of the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity”. Party “Petro Poroshenko Bloc – Solidarity” gets 6.5% of the vote.

Blogger Alexander Dubinsky predicts a further decline in the rating of the ruling party. “A couple of months and a couple of rises in utility tariffs, without which it is impossible to get the IMF tranche, and we expect serious upheavals,” he says.

The blogger recalled that the condition for the tranche of the International monetary Fund in the amount of 1.9 billion dollars, is to increase gas prices for population to the level of imports. To get the tranche, it is necessary to raise utility rates, but if tranche will not increase the rate of the dollar. In any case, the blow will be struck at the pockets of the population.

“BPP, the government and all the power squeezed into a corner. Whatever they did, worsen the living conditions of the population. We will see unpleasant changes in tariffs, the cost of clothing, food, gasoline – everything. Of course, it will affect the rating of the BPP, and he will continue to decline,” – said Dubinsky.

He was confident that the fall of the party’s rating before the election would cause a split in the ruling team. The start can serve as an approximation of the rating to the level passage threshold to the Verkhovna Rada that will face politicians to be left out of Parliament.

“As soon as the rating would be “death zone” of 5%, you will see Peter I will start to run with his companions. They will betray him go to the enemy camp, to negotiate, to drain the dirt. Massive betrayal of the environment Poroshenko could begin in two to three months. And we will see so much new about him that “the Panamanian offshore” seem flowers,” said Dubinsky in his video blog.

It should be noted that in the presidential rating, 17.7% of those who take part in the vote and have already decided on the choice called Yulia Tymoshenko. For the leader of the party “Civic position” Anatoly Gritsenko voted 10.7%, for the leader of the party “Opposition bloc” Yuriy Boyko — 8,9%, for the leader of the Radical party of Oleh Lyashko — 8,5% for the incumbent President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko to 8.3%.

“Trench warfare”

Almost every fifth Ukrainian has not decided for which candidate to vote for in the presidential election. And one in six have not decided on the choice of the party in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada.

Ruslan Bortnik said that on the eve of the election campaign dominated by “profound electoral fragmentation, fatigue, apathy, covering government and opposition, new and old.” “Fresh presidential ratings from the sociological group “Rating” look like trench chronicle of the First world”, – he stressed.

Note that in the First world war, developed tactics, which he called “trench warfare”. It is a situation in which none of the warring parties can not go on break. Military action from both sides paced, offensive, ineffective, and struggle for the exhaustion of the enemy.

Indeed, the starting positions of the races very predictable. “Batkivshchyna”, “Opposition bloc”, “Civic position”, the party “For life” and “BPP Solidarity” support the citizens of middle and old age. For the party “servant of the people” ready to vote young people (but she doesn’t like to go to the polls).

“Fatherland” and “BPP Solidarity” have a relatively good performance in all regions except the Eastern region. “Civic position” supported in the West and center of Ukraine. “Radical party” and the party “servant of the people” popular in the centre and South of the country. But the “Opposition bloc” and the party “For life” are supported on the South and East.

It should be noted that in the West traditionally is prepared to support the party “samopomich” and “Freedom”. But they do not overcome the entrance barrier to the Parliament. For “samopomich” now would vote 4.3% of voters, and for “Freedom” – by 4.1%.

There is also the “agrarian party”, which is ready to support 2.5% of the respondents. The rating of the other parties – less than 2%. These include, for example, “popular front”, which is widely represented in Parliament and the government with the rating of about 1%. The force of the former Odessa Governor Mikhail Saakashvili, who had intended to change the government in Ukraine is half a percent support of the population.

The analyst Elena Dyachenko believes that the voter does not see a direct connection between the vote and the victory of a particular candidate or party.

“In the mind of the voter that he vote, nothing to do with who will win, and the belief that everything is decided by agreement are “up there”. Such a voter could believe any lie from the TV, even in victory, not very, to put it mildly, everyone’s favorite candidate,” she wrote on Facebook.

However, the analyst does not exclude that the government will try by all means to avoid elections in which her victory is questionable. “Approaching a time when Poroshenko needs to understand that at the inertial scenario the election he did not win, so such a scenario, he will try to avoid” – predicts it.

They say, in order to Bankova went to the polls, and did not attempt to prevent them (e.g. by introducing a state of emergency –ed.) must be good arguments.

“Conditionally inertial (relative to the dynamics of ratings) scenario and the victory of Y. Tymoshenko is the end of the current presidency, but such a below average yield for the country. But for this scenario, something has to happen with the current President, for what he’d agreed to participate and the failure or refusal to participate. And that something is not revealed”, – says Elena Dyachenko.

Дата публикации: 
14.08.2018 - 17