The Verkhovna Rada has gone on summer vacation. Elected officials gain strength before the hot autumn political season, the main theme of which will be the presidential and parliamentary elections. Meanwhile already it is now gaining steep momentum of the presidential election race. The first presidential election campaign, for 8 months before the election, at full throttle was launched by Yulia Tymoshenko. This is the fourth attempt of Tymoshenko to become President of Ukraine. The scientists claim that this time, she has every reason to be optimistic. On pre-election political situation in the country, the correspondent of ГолосUA said political analyst Ruslan Bortnik.
-Ruslan, what number, in your opinion, should be the new composition of the Central election Commission?
-Today voters in Ukraine will be 20% less than they were in 2012 due to the loss of Crimea and Donbas. Geographically we have lost more than 10% of the territory. Therefore, as a minimum, have one member of the Central election Commission to reduce, but the logic is the nicer of the two members. The wrong way, I think, approach the question of formation of the new composition of the CEC. I do not presume to predict what will happen tomorrow. I think that really will still be formed the new composition of the CEC in the fall. It is logical that the focus should be on reducing the fee, because without the Crimea and Donbas to reduce the number of CEC members is understandable. The CEC should be formed publicly, transparently, in the competitions – thus will be ensured the legitimacy of the Commission. We must understand that the new CEC would take two of the political cycle and elections 6. The quality of their work will determine the quality of power. The situation surrounding the CEC demonstrates a deep crisis within the coalition.
– What other issues concern our government, in addition to the problem of the CEC?
– The question of the formation of the Central electoral Commission is a marker of how the elections will be held in Ukraine. But
CEC is the icing somewhere on the cake. Today, authorities matured very serious conflict. Groisman fighting with Avakov for customs, Poroshenko, the SBU. Struggle against smuggling: “Smuggling – stop!”, there is a struggle against lotteries. Searches are with friends of Vinnytsia Volodymyr Groysman. That is, there is a fierce covert struggle. There is a struggle for the nomination from the authorities.
-Some politicians have a real chance to become a presidential candidate?
Among presidential candidates, in addition to Poroshenko, it may be Vladimir Groisman. Today it is more acceptable candidate for the popular front, also it maintains a part of the entourage of the President. Also his rating is less than the other candidates, although the ratings had neither. The Groisman good relations with regional elites. In the framework of decentralization manual distribution of money to “set up” his good relations with the regional elites.
So I think that CEC is a technical question. It is obvious that it will move in the fall.
-The number of candidates on a post of the President of Ukraine has already exceeded 50…
-All cards are on the table. Will 50-70 candidates for the position of heads of state quietly, and maybe even more. This year the presidential campaign is a prelude to a parliamentary election campaign. Everyone will go to the President in order to bargain for parliamentary seats and stretch your party project and then beg for a Deputy chair from popular parties.
-Most likely, it will be a whole sheet of candidates-nominees…
– Of course. They can be pasted to a living room who have free four walls in the room. It will be the whole sheet. Have to vote for biography, not for promises. And if you vote for promises, only for those that were given in 2014. New promises are almost there. There is only the old promises, so the voter needs to analyze what made them. The only way to decide for whom to vote. The main thing – that we should go to vote because if we don’t go as in 2014, vote again is for us to choose the people who corrupt from the government, and various state employees and the right. Here again they generate their power, and we then we wonder, where did Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko.
-There is also the danger of bribery in the election…
There will be bribery, but they affect 5-7%, maximum 10% of voters. The lower the turnout the easier it is to falsify. The higher the turnout, the harder something is to falsify.
What dominant political force today?
Today the dominant rating of Tymoshenko’s 30%. But the gap between her and her opponents is quite small. Tymoshenko is now plowing full force, waging a heavy campaign. Besides her, tries to conduct the election campaign of Petro Poroshenko. They are as customary in the framework of the campaign. By the way, for everyone who now starts, is now leading the campaign two times cheaper than the cost of billboards. The fall will be twice the price of absolutely everything, and during the winter and spring three to five times more expensive. The election campaign will be expensive.