May 25, 2018 – the fourth anniversary of the holding of early presidential elections, which was elected Petro Poroshenko. The President says that the hard part was done. The ГолосUA decided to summarize the activities of Poroshenko and asked about this analyst Ruslan Bortnik. We also asked whether Poroshenko the chance of re-election for a second term, and if he’ll agree to early elections.
– As with the arrival of Petro Poroshenko for the post of President for the last four years has changed the lives of Ukrainians?
– Ukrainians in 2018 can buy four times less products than in 2013. That is, we are four times poorer. In addition, the country has left 2.5 million people, several times increased the level of crime, and increased mortality. If the government does everything right, citizens massively go abroad. If the government pursues wrong policies, we are witnessing the extinction and depopulation. All the rest of the “Peremogi” and “zrada” have value only for the political elites and are the instruments of manipulation of public consciousness. From the point of view of ordinary Ukrainian people the last four years were the worst in the history of Ukrainian independence. So EN masse we haven’t died out, emigrated and did not lose territory. We in the history of Ukraine did not lose so many people by the stroke of a political pen.
– Do Poroshenko the chance of re-election for a second term?
– The chances remain. They are due to several reasons. The first of them – the low turnout in the elections. If the Ukrainians will go EN masse to vote, the chances of the current government simply will not. But if the only vote 40% of them can be found 10-20%, which can be manipulated. The second component is lawlessness. Election without Crimea and the Donbass will further exacerbate the schism and alienate the integration of these regions. In these conditions, Poroshenko has a chance to be President.
– Would the Poroshenko at the early elections?
– Early elections – it is a conflict with the Constitution, as the term of office of the President or of the Parliament defined by the Constitution. In order to have elections, it is necessary to enlist the support of the constitutional court. To do this quickly is impossible, and while the preparation of such a scenario we do not observe. If early parliamentary elections at a certain sauce, the government can play a little, but drastic changes to her will not be achieved, even if the election to hold a referendum on NATO or EU membership. It will not allow the cardinal to win back the electorate. The President loses to competitors in its political niche, in particular, Yulia Tymoshenko, Hrytsenko, Vakarchuk and others, even Boyko and Rabinovich.
– Whether the West in the upcoming elections be put on Poroshenko?
– Create an anti-corruption court and other topics – it is just a question about the West’s support of Poroshenko in the elections in 2019. I think that the West does not deliver. Perhaps, guarantees of non-prosecution Poroshenko in exchange for support for the right candidate from the West and will be provided. As President, Poroshenko is already ineffective. Therefore, the West will consider other candidates at the upcoming presidential election.
– How the West assesses the activities of Poroshenko as President?
– As a complete failure. The West deeply disappointed in his work. The problem is that the West never publicly demonstrate this frustration. For the West to publicly demonstrate frustration Poroshenko is to admit defeat. That is, to recognize the inefficiency of the reforms carried out under Western control and mold. The West believes Poroshenko is ineffective and extremely corrupt. But publicly, about the West will not speak, because for him it is equivalent to shooting yourself in the foot and the recognition of the failure of the current Ukrainian authorities.
– Who will put the US and the EU in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections?
– Gritsenko, Vakarchuk and other Euro-optimists. In the worst case – Tymoshenko. In the case of hopelessness, it can be a suitable candidate for the presidential and parliamentary elections. Today, “Batkivshchyna” is the center party, which formed a political coalition in 2019. Note that for the first time in the history of opinion in the West can be divided among several candidates. There will be three positions. The EU is one candidate of the American democratic establishment, the second, and the administration of Donald trump the third. The American Democrats now put Gritsenko, the EU – Vakarchuk. The white house has bet did not. I think that this clarity will come this fall. But in the second round they will put on one candidate.