Trades premiere. Chances Jaresko lead the government

In the maelstrom of the political crisis in Ukraine have started talking about change of government. The main candidate for prime minister - the head of the Ministry of Finance Natalya Jaresko.

At the request of the Correspondent political scientist, Director of the Ukrainian Institute of analysis and management policy Ruslan Bortnik analyses, "Chicago lady" can change Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the hype around her name, only scenery for the political performance of the President. The material is placed in No. 10 of the edition from 18 March 2016.

Figure Natalie Jaresko is largely symbolic for Ukrainian politics. The appointment of 2 December 2014 "Chicago lady" on a post of the Minister of Finance of Ukraine has allowed to establish that first government Yatsenyuk – the government of the Maidan has completed its activity, and on change to it came second to the government of foreigners. After all, with all due respect to Alexander Kvitashvili (appointed to the post of Minister of health) and Aivaras Abromavicius (Minister of economic development and trade) that Jaresko was planned and began, if not gray cardinal, then certainly the leader of the party of foreigners in XIX the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine sample 2014-2016.

During the whole period Jaresko, it was not only the smallest amount of complaints from the President, coalition and experts, but almost never stopped talking about raising her status.

In fact during the whole period of work Jaresko not only had the fewest complaints from the President, coalition and experts, but almost never stopped talking about raising her status to at least the level of Vice-Premier. Ambitions Jaresko notice (not the fact that for free ) even in the US, as evidenced by the statement of former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer about her possible Premiership.

On account Jaresko restructuring part of the external debt of Ukraine (which, although strategic worsened financial situation of the country, but gave tactical a temporary respite budget), tight monetary policy to combat the budget deficit (halving the budget deficit) and the increase in government revenue (by 38.1% in 2015), the new tax code and the beginning of fiscal decentralization, the second program of cooperation with the IMF. Obviously, an important role in the international success Jaresko played her close relationship with the US Republican elites. It is for George Bush, she worked in the US Department of State (Foreign Affairs Ministry).

Against Jaresko – low social popularity (9-12 rating in the country – 2% of support), jointly and severally, government responsibility for the fall of key economic indicators (more than 30% of the GDP in the dollar equivalent), bad relationship with Parliament, which in fact repeatedly tried to "bend" or deceive (budget-2016, "IMF laws", Tax code, etc.), complex relations with the oligarchs and the President, who reasonably suspect Jaresko in lack of loyalty and work "abroad" (17 years – from 1989 to 2006 she worked for the U.S. government or close to government structures). But this formal side of the coin.

Actually the contours of the figure of the future Prime-Minister of Ukraine today are determined by four factors:

  1. The ability to release social steam and to give a temporary respite to the authorities.

The current 70-80% distrust the authorities is fraught for the coalition parties and the President not only social protests that have already somehow learned to fight, and, above all, the emergence of a political alternative in the second-the third echelon of leaders and parties – the loss of power and exclusive support of oligarchs and Western partners.

The government Jaresko probably could claim the title of the most anti-social of the government of Ukraine for all its modern history, the Bible will be, obviously, not laws, and memoranda or agreements with the IMF that required further destruction of the post-Soviet system of social security. In this view figure Jaresko far from optimal (this is almost Yatsenyuk-2) and is clearly inferior to Volodymyr Groysman, Yulia Tymoshenko, Alexander Sadovyi, or even Mikhail Saakashvili.

  1. The support of Western partners.

And it is not so simple. Indeed, despite the "American past", it is clear that Jaresko has full and exclusive support of the West. Today, Western support is divided between several pieces: part elite supports Saakashvili, other – Sadovyi, and someone the current Prime Minister – Yatsenyuk. This is the reason and the wave of publications in the Western media, in which the new Ukrainian Prime Minister called it Jaresko, Groisman, and then himself Yatsenyuk came out with the expanded promotional interviews. Participants premiered still actively lobbying its interests in the West. Therefore, it is clear that the decision of Western partners of Ukraine have not yet adopted.

  1. On the admissibility of candidatures for President.

Today President and his team have almost monopoly power. Incompetent and shipped in the conflict the Parliament, involving the government headed by Prime Minister who has lost any political prospects and, therefore, has become "manual", unable to compete with the team of the head of state, either politically or financially. With any other Prime Minister the President will not be easy, especially with Western protege, who has his personal channels of communication and support in the U.S. and the EU, and who fulfills his obligations first of all to Brussels and Washington and not in front of the Bankova. Jaresko is unlikely to be "manual". And certainly not for Poroshenko. The President's team understands that.

  1. Approval of the candidature premier oligarchs,

without which it is very difficult to imagine a successful vote in Parliament and overall system support of the government. Here are the chances of any of the «ukrainian» candidates for the higher "foreign". Especially on the eve of large-scale privatization planned this year, and preparation for sale of lands.

So far it seems that the candidacy Jaresko (as, however, and Sadovyi), the President has proposed for public discussion, based on polittechnological feasibility.

Using its financial and political circles of the USA, Poroshenko tries to convince Western partners not just to support and even initiate dismissal "toxic" to the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk in exchange for the possible appointment of Yaresko.

In the worst case, push the resignation of Yatsenyuk or provoke an aggravation of relations between the prime minister and finance minister cleared of Jaresko (and Sadovyi) road to the Premiership a more convenient candidate or to sharpen the competition between the candidates for the Premiership.

And not the fact that the Parliament will find the necessary votes for Jaresko, as it has already happened with the resignation of Yatsenyuk.

Bride for Western, blackmail Yatsenyuk and attempt to rake in the political heat of someone else's hands is something that is seen proposal by the President.

Jaresko has put forward unacceptable conditions of its consent to Premiership: nequity Prime Minister’s government, unconditional support of all coalition parties, the candidacies of Ministers from Jaresko. About this it could not dream any of the Prime Ministers of Ukraine.

It understands itself Jaresko that public (through the unauthorized discharge of the media ) actually put forward unacceptable conditions of her consent to the premiership: nequity Prime Minister’s government, unconditional support of all coalition parties, the candidacies of Ministers from Jaresko.

About this and could not dream neither of the Prime Ministers of Ukraine, including Yatsenyuk. It is extremely unlikely that such conditions will get Jaresko.

She is ready for the Premiership, but it’s not ready for to society and politics. Therefore, the probability of his appointment is unlikely to exceed 20% possible in the case of any extreme political and economic conditions. Although the Western partners of Ukraine have not yet told the weighty word.